That’s a good article [idea],” Pat Murphy said one day just after the All-Star break. Let’s see if he was right.
The Brewers were facing the Twins in Minnesota shortly after the All-Star break. The captain questioned the gathering gathered during the morning press conference with manager Pat Murphy about his team’s ranking in terms of overall bunt attempts. He was horrified to see that they were only fourth in the Major League Baseball. He was also horrified by the team’s meager total of bunts, which at the time was little less than 40.
That’s not because Murphy particularly believes in bunting for hits, or even because he is an ardent disciple of the dying art of the sacrifice bunt. In fact, even though he wants his team to adopt the strategy, he has identified multiple instances this season where players bunted against his wishes—even on occasions when he would have much rather seen them swing away. No, the threat of the bunt is what appeals to Murphy. He believes that frequently squaring around is beneficial for pitchers and defenses, much beyond the simple consequence of bunts that actually fall in play.
Of those 134 full-fledged bunt efforts attempted by the Brewers this season, over half have ended with balls in play. However, after going through every one of them, I discovered that 69 plate appearances—38 in the first half and 31 in the second—ended with a foul or missed bunt and another type of batter-pitcher contact.
The defense may come to mind when you hear a manager mention the intangible consequences of failing to get a bunt down. Do they move somewhat in reaction to this apparent knowledge of the batter’s plan? Do they stiffen up and start making more mistakes? Perhaps in some particular circumstances. That is a tenable theory, at the absolute least, particularly if the batter using the bunt as a weapon has speed on his side. Brice Turang is hitting a single through an infield that may have slightly rearranged itself to thwart his earlier attempted bunt during his plate appearance.
We consider frequently how tactical hit location and bat control can deform a defense. It’s a logical strategy to put pressure on a defense: have them defend little, frequently inconsequential portions of the field, freeing up more attractive and accessible real estate. However, in actual play, defenses don’t simply fold and move aside when you display bunt. The bunt is not too frightening. Therefore, hits that follow a missed bunt attempt typically appear considerably more traditional. This one belongs to Garrett Mitchell.
That ball was smoked, and well it should have been. In fact, this is where we start to really tap into something, measurable or not: it sure seems like a mislaid bunt invites a pitcher to get themselves in trouble by grooving a pitch in the immediate wake of that pitch. Baserunning hijinks aside, look what a good, hittable pitch Turang gets on this should-have-been double, right after a foul bunt.
No left-handed pitcher should ever throw a lefty batter that good an 0-2 pitch. They do it anyway, sometimes, but the bad bunt seems to increase the frequency of that category of pitching error a bit. Turang, who doesn’t have a whole lot of power in general, has gotten quite good at capitalizing on this specific vulnerability in opposing pitchers. Early in the season, he would get hangers on the heels of abortive bunts and foul them off. Now, he knows what to do with them
The collective pressure we imagine a bunt putting on a defense isn’t actually there, but there does appear to be a freakout factor for the battery, even when bunters are infrequent and excellent hitters—the kind of guy a pitcher should be least concerned about bunt attempts from and against whom the pitching approach should change the least after one. A few weeks ago, Jackson Chourio attempted a bunt attempt under the shadow of some freeways north of Atlanta, but he completely botched it.
Again, pitchers make mistakes at times other than the immediate aftermath of a bunt attempt. There really does seem to be something wanting in the execution of certain pitch types by a hurler after such offerings, though, and if a hitter can be ready for it, the opportunities created by those mistakes can be highly valuable. Right,
All of this seems rather anecdotal, but whatever. In a moment, we’ll discuss the numbers, but first, let’s enjoy one last highlight. It all started for this young club in mid-April, when they were still learning how to bunt and how to take advantage of any weaknesses in pitchers’ defenses that those bunts might have created. Late in a tie game, Blake Perkins tried to lay one down for a single, but when it didn’t work, he was prepared to make up for it.
These are the only home runs the Crew has hit in at-bats involving unsuccessful bunts. They have also managed a few other extra-base hits and a few really hard outs, ranging from fly balls caught near the wall to wicked one-hoppers by Christian Yelich that were caught on the infield at 107 mph. Sometimes, once a hitter has the bunt in the back of their mind, pitchers may deliver fat strikes. It’s similar to how a pitcher may fool a batter by pitching a fastball by them in the zone for a third strike after putting their soft stuff in the back of their head early in the count.
The Brewers this season are batting.262/.294/.538 in plate appearances that include a bunt attempt but don’t end on one. Mitchell, Turang, Perkins, Chourio, Ortiz, Yelich, Sal Frelick, and other players are among those who have at-batted. The power the team is able to produce by enticing the pitcher with a bunt try is enormous, yet it’s not surprising to see a low walk rate for such situations as a failed bunt attempt is by definition a strike. It looks like pitchers make a lot of errors over the heart of the plate, but I was unable to look up pitch locations right after bunt attempts.
This is the kind of thing Murphy was talking about when he discussed getting a result after a failed bunt. Sometimes a batter needs to be helped to focus and see the ball farther or more clearly. Occasionally, the defense may be forced out of position. But most of the time, it’s about applying a light, almost covert, pressure to the pitcher. When a bunt rolls foul, it’s likely that they are unaware that they are approaching a trap. They may be gaining unwarranted confidence as they analyze what the batter just tried mentally. Perhaps it’s encouraging them to throw a ball that is easier to bunt in an attempt to get out. Perhaps it’s merely a shift in perspective regarding the strike zone. Regardless of the reason, they’re
This is not an iceberg whose complete topography we are charting. We will just have to be content with the tip, where we can see and comprehend what is happening. But if you don’t like how often the team tries to bunt, or if you don’t think that strategy can turn a game around and inspire an offense, these are some solid reasons to think otherwise. As the season has gone on, the Brewers have become more adept at this. They are a squad consisting of eager bunters, and although they may frustrate opponents with some of their bunts, they also have the ability to pressure defenses and start rallies. In the meantime, the ones they fail to eliminate are also having an effect, whether it be small or large.