After two seasons in Tuscaloosa, Alabama Crimson Tide sophomore forward Jarin Stevenson has entered the NCAA transfer portal, per reports Wednesday afternoon.
Stevenson also reportedly has a “do not contact” tag, and is the third Alabama player to enter the transfer portal so far this offseason joining Mouhamed Dioubate and Naas Cunningham, the former of which has already announced a commitment to Kentucky.
A former four-star prospect in Alabama’s 2023 class, Stevenson has started 27-of-74 games for the Crimson Tide over the last two seasons. During that span, Stevenson has averaged a combined 5.3 points and 3 rebounds per game on 42.3% shooting from the field, as well as 31.2% from three and 63.6% at the free throw line.
This past season as a sophomore, Stevenson started 22-of-37 games for Alabama, averaging 5.4 points and 3.4 rebounds per game on 42.9% shooting from the field. Stevenson also shot 30.7% from three, as well as 59.7% at the free throw line.
Willis harkens back the same story she told in Mbakwe’s commitment announcement video: how her son would always ask for action figures, football helmets and race cars growing up, how he would transform each into his personal football roster, running his own plays, forcing each car or action figure to execute whatever play he wanted.
It didn’t stop there. When Mbakwe was in preschool and Willis was helping him learn to count, she would use numbers on football jerseys to help her lessons stick.
“He eats, sleeps, breathes football,” Willis told the Tuscaloosa News.
Through Mbakwe’s tumultuous offseason, one centered around a 24-hour stint in the transfer portal and a position change from Alabama cornerback to wide receiver, Willis said Mbakwe’s relationship with football, and his relationship with those around him has not changed.
“I tell everybody all the time, I don’t say this because I’m his mom. It takes me out of the mom equation,” Willis said. “He’s really a good person. He has a good heart, and he’s going to help anybody that’s in need or is willing to teach anybody who doesn’t really understand what their position is on the field, or help someone get better.
“I don’t think that he has changed. He has been the same Jaylen all along.”
Jaylen Mbakwe ‘is going to be that deal’
Willis didn’t watch much football until her son began playing at age 5. But it didn’t take long for her to realize Mbakwe “is going to be that deal.”
Mbakwe was always eager to improve, she said, to fix mistakes, attributes that have carried over to Alabama.
Playing both wide receiver and defensive back at Clay-Chalkville High School, and with his move to quarterback as a senior, Mbakwe developed a big-picture football mentality, Willis said, helping him understand major concepts that made him both a better cornerback and wide receiver in the long run.
As an athlete, it’s easy for Willis to see what separates her son from the rest.
“Once he is trying to get past who is trying to get to him,” she said, “there’s no catching him.”
Why did Jaylen Mbakwe pick Alabama football?
Throughout Mbakwe’s recruitment, Willis was focused on two things: helping her son find his football family, and helping her son find a group of people that would tell him the truth.
“I have a very big spirit of discernment, so I can tell whether you are lying to me or not,” Willis said. “I always tell people, ‘Don’t B.S. me because I can tell.’”
Willis said she and Mbakwe found both at Alabama, through a recruiting staff that was “nothing but wonderful,” one that included associate director of recruiting operations Ashleigh Kimble, who Willis said is the “mother figure” she was looking for for her son.
And once the former Clay-Chalkville five-star arrived, it didn’t take long for the Crimson Tide fan base to know who Mbakwe was, starting a podcast with teammate Ryan Williams — a project Willis said the pair had been talking about well before they arrived at Alabama — and showing off his personality for the world to see.
“I don’t think there was really a shell ever for him to come out of,” Willis said.
Why did Jaylen Mbakwe enter the transfer portal?
Throughout Mbakwe’s freshman season, one where he had 15 tackles, two pass deflections and an interception as a cornerback, Willis said she asked her son about a potential move back to wide receiver. Mbakwe initially shut down the move, but continued to think it through, later bringing Alabama coaches into the fold.
Mbakwe’s offseason came to a height Dec. 16 when he announced he would enter the transfer portal, confirming the move in an Instagram post and calling it a “business decision.” He changed his mind less than 24 hours later, announcing his return to the Tide with a “The Wolf of Wall Street” meme of Leonardo DiCaprio saying “I’m not leavin,’” and scrubbing any social media evidence of his prior decision.
“Some guys, just as they go through it, realize really what they want,” Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer said in December. “And, you know, we are just in the world right now where that’s what it is. We’re excited that he wanted to be here with us. And back out there going to work today.”
For Willis, those 24 hours were radio silence. She said she went into a shell and distanced herself from everyone.
“I didn’t need any outside talk trying to sway us on what it was that we were going to do,” Willis said. “But that solely was (his) decision. I follow my son. I do whatever he wants me to do for him at that time. Whatever decision he makes, I’m behind him 100%. So this was a conversation we had. It was something he thought he wanted to do, but at the end of the day, it wasn’t the best decision for him to make.”
Willis said Mbakwe loves Alabama. She hardly ever sees him, she said with a laugh, saying that’s a significant indicator of his love for the Tide.
Willis is just ready for Alabama fans to continue to understand who Mbakwe is.
“I want them to know and understand who he really is as a person,” Willis said. “He’s really a good person. He’s a good player. He’s a fantastic player to me. But more importantly, he is a great person and if people would get to know that instead of basing it off of what they see, or what is put out there in the media, you would see more positive things that are said on social media.”
What’s next for Jaylen Mbakwe?
It doesn’t matter the level. Every time Willis has seen Mbakwe put on a football uniform, she has teared up. It’s powerful, she said, evidence of the future her son spoke into existence.
Looking ahead, Mbakwe is now speaking about goals of graduating from Alabama in three years and eventually making it to the next level. But Willis continuously encourages her son to focus on the now, on the present.
“I am really, really happy that he is living the life that he has wanted to live,” Willis said.
NCAA BASKETBALL: MAR 29 Div I Men’s Championship – Elite Eight – Duke vs Alabama
The Kentucky Wildcats are looking to build out next season’s roster after a good first season under Mark Pope.
Kentucky, a top-10 team at times throughout the season, finished 24-12 overall while losing to Tennessee in the Sweet 16 and will now look to reload for an even better 2025-26 campaign.
The Cats already have 5-star prospect Jasper Johnson (via ESPN) joining the roster, while 4-star commits Malachi Moreno and Acaden Lewis should also have an immediate impact.
In addition to those two, along with several returning players who influenced this season’s team, Kentucky has received commitments from two transfers: Tulane star forward Kam Williams and Pitt standout Jaland Lowe.
Another name to keep an eye on is Alabama’s Mouhamed Dioubate, who announced he was headed to the transfer portal. Per Kentucky Sports Radio’s Jacob Polacheck, the Cats met with Dioubate over Zoom this past weekend and expect a quick decision from their former SEC foe sometime early this week.
The 6-foot-7 Dioubate would give the Cats some size on the perimeter, which would be welcome. He averaged 7.2 points and 5.9 rebounds per game, so he was a good rebounding forward for his size.
While Dioubate could certainly improve his 3-point shooting, he did average 0.3 triples per game, shooting 46.2% from deep and 61.7% from the field. He played in 37 games but didn’t start any. He’s primed to take a massive step forward, and he could do just that in Lexington.
Expect a quick decision and one that could favor the Cats
Alabama football coach Kalen DeBoer made clear what he wants to see from his running backs after the Crimson Tide wrapped up its second scrimmage of the spring Friday.
He fielded a question about Richard Young specifically, but DeBoer took the opportunity to talk about the position as a whole.
“I think finding times when they can get their yards when they need to, put their head down,” DeBoer said. “I think that’s a strength of (Young’s) and I think as a corps, as a group they can all try to do, if they can give us a little bit more, when maybe the perfect blocking isn’t in place, which is going to happen when you’re playing in an SEC game in particular. It’s hard to block and so you have got to make some things happen. Want to see the whole group continue to improve in yards after contact, making people miss out in space, not let that first guy bring you down.”
Young is in a running back room with a mix of veterans, transfers and young players. Jam Miller also returns this season and figures to be the lead back again.
Daniel Hill and Kevin Riley both return for their second seasons with the program. Meanwhile, Alabama added Dre Washington from the transfer portal and freshman AK Dear from Mississippi.
Alabama completed its second scrimmage Friday and will hold another week’s worth of spring practices before concluding the spring with A-Day on Saturday, April 12.
Alabama basketball is losing a key contributor from its Elite Eight and Final Four runs. Mo Dioubate plans to enter the transfer portal and depart after two seasons in Tuscaloosa, On3 reported on Friday.
The forward from New York wasn’t a regular starter for the 2024-25 Crimson Tide, however, he made crucial contributions throughout the season. He was a major part of the Final Four postseason run, starring in a win over Grand Canyon.
“He won us the Grand Canyon game,” Alabama head coach Nate Oats said of Dioubate this past season. “He’s a guy who just gives us something a lot different than pretty much anybody else on the roster. We need that out of him. Or maybe an SEC Tournament game or an NCAA Tournament game where he’s the only guy who can do what he does. Comes in and sparks us and gives us win.”
The 6-foot-7, 215-pound forward averaged 7.2 points and 5.9 rebounds per game this past season. He’ll have two years of eligibility remaining.
Dioubate became the second Alabama player from the 2024-25 roster to to enter the transfer portal. Naas Cunningham will depart Tuscaloosa after redshirting his freshman year with the Tide, never seeing the court in a game.
Alabama has added two players so far this portal window, including former Bucknell star Noah Williamson and Florida State’s Taylor Bol Bowen.
Alabama’s 2024-25 season came to an end in the Elite Eight, where UA lost to Duke. The Crimson Tide had sailed through the first two rounds of the tournament, before riding a historic three-point shooting performance to victory in the Sweet 16 over BYU.
In addition to Cunningham and Dioubate, Alabama is losing Mark Sears, Grant Nelson, Cliff Omoruyi and Chris Youngblood, all of whom are out of eligibility. The current transfer portal entry window is open through April 22.
The Transfer Portal is in full swing. Here’s the latest roster tracker for Alabama basketball as Nate Oats and company build the roster for 2025-26.
Feb 15, 2025; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nate Oats directs his team against the Auburn Tigers during the first half at Coleman Coliseum.
Feb 15, 2025; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nate Oats directs his team against the Auburn Tigers during the first half at Coleman Coliseum.
Things are moving fast for Alabama basketball in the Transfer Portal in the aftermath of losing to Duke in the Elite Eight to end the 2024-25 season. Nate Oats and his staff have turned their full attention to the portal and building the roster for next season.
Alabama just finished up year three of the best three-year run in the history of the program. The 22-23 team won the SEC regular season and tournament titles and earned a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament for the first time in program history. The 23-24 team made it to the Final Four for the first time in program history. And the 24-25 team made it three straight Sweet 16s and two straight Elite Eights.
Oats has raised the bar tremendously in Tuscaloosa. With that comes heightened expectations and pressure to stay near the top. Oats welcomes the expectations and has a brash confidence in himself to build a winning roster year-in and year-out.
Piecing the roster together is a fun puzzle, albeit frustrating for normal fans. In today’s collegiate landscape, you have to look at each team, each season as entirely different. Gone are the days of watching players grow. If you get two years out of a single player, that’s pretty good nowadays. It’s rare to have anyone for three or four years, and a lot of players are one-year rentals now.
This will be your hub for all the roster tracking information for Alabama basketball. We’ll track and update this with who’s staying, who’s leaving, and who’s joining the Crimson Tide for next season.
Alabama basketball 2025-26 roster tracker
Who’s leaving Alabama
Out of Eligibility
Transferring:
G Naas Cunningham
Alabama will have some big shoes to replace with Mark Sears and Grant Nelson, in particular, running out of eligibility. Those two will forever be remembered in Crimson Tide lore as cornerstone pieces to last season’s Final Four team and for getting the team back to the Elite Eight this season.
Alabama will have more transfers to come, but for now they’ve only seen redshirt freshman guard Naas Cunningham enter the Transfer Portal thus far.
No draft decisions have been made official yet, but freshman guard Labaron Philon is expected to enter the NBA Draft sometime soon.
Who’s staying at Alabama
There have been no official announcements made yet, but we will update this section as they happen. Aden Holloway, Aiden Sherrell, and Houston Mallette all indicated in the post game following the Duke loss that they intended to return next season, but you have to take anything set in the aftermath of a game with a grain of salt.
Who’s joining Alabama:
Transfer Portal:
Noah Williamson, C, Bucknell (7-foot, 250)
Alabama landed a quick commitment on Monday night from Bucknell center and Patriot League Player of the Year Noah Williamson. Williamson was on a visit to Tuscaloosa on Monday and Oats and company got him to commit before leaving town as they hoped.
Alabama Basketball is not a poverty program but Nate Oats does not have a player payroll budget equal to a growing number of college basketball programs.
Does Alabama Basketball have the cash to compete in NIL deals? The short answer is yes and no. The Crimson Tide is far from being a poverty program. At the same time, a growing number of programs are offering deals at levels the Crimson Tide cannot match.
Numbers on the actual cost of college basketball NIL deals are fuzzy. It is believed that Mark Sears earned less than $1M for the past season. BY comparison, Tennessee guard Chaz Lanier is believed to have been paid $1.8M.
And for the 2025-26 college basketball season, the price of poker is going up.
South Carolina coach Lamont Paris recently said, “Collin Murray-Boyles got an offer for $2.5 million from another SEC team that was playing in the NCAA Tournament.” Kentucky fansite A Sea of Blue believes Mark Pope will be working with an $8-10M budget for next season.
The best source for real numbers in NIL deals is On3’s Pete Nakos. Nakos gains information from sources he cannot disclose, but are actual insiders he believes provide credible information.
The Alabama basketball program does get outbid. Athletic Director Greg Byrne explained that Alabama will not add as many scholarships as possible with increased roster limits, saying Alabama is “not as flush” as other schools. He specifically mentioned Texas.
Alabama Basketball and Nate Oats Discount
It is believed that Alabama has a ‘Nate Oats discount’ with his NBA-style offense that elite players prefer. But money often talks louder. Alabama could not come close to matching the reported $3.7M price tag BYU paid for AJ Dybantsa. Dybantsa’s financial package has been estimated at a total of around $7M, but his expected one-season career in college basketball means BYU will not have to pay the full amount. Even at $3.7M, the price was too high for Alabama. Alabama basketball insiders believe Nate Oats has around $5M to spend. According to Pete Nakos, “Big East programs are closing in on $6 to $8 million budgets.” Nakos stated several transfer players have closed $2M deals, with the possibility that a player deal can go as high as $3M.
Pete Nakos reported Louisville’s player budget is $8-10M. The Cardinals and the Crimson Tide pursued Kennesaw State transfer, Adrien Wooley. Nate Oats had an inside track to land Wooley, but he chose Louisville instead, in a decision that must have come down to Alabama getting outbid.
In the NIL era, there have been indications that Alabama Basketball and Alabama Football pursue players for whom fast cash is not the primary decision point. Spending money unwisely is worse than having less money to spend than some other programs. Team cohesion can suffer from rosters top-heavy in cash to a small percentage of players.
The situation is not gloom and doom for Alabama Basketball. Nate Oats will build a new roster with enough talent to go deep into next season’s NCAA Tournament. Alabama has an advantage because Alabama Crimson Tide assistant coach, Preston Murphy, is a recruiting wizard.
All-American guard Mark Sears has made his last March Madness run. USF transfer Chris Youngblood‘s season-long return to his hometown of Tuscaloosa is done. The days of dunks from Rutgers big man addition Clifford Omoruyi are done, not to forget returning Final Four starter Grant Nelson.
Alabama looked for rim protection in the transfer portal last off-season after guys like Johni Broome left the Crimson Tide vulnerable on the glass, and finds itself in a similar position while building its 2025-26 roster with the exits of 6-foot-11 bigs Omoruyi and Nelson.
While the absence of two bigs from the starting five is hard to miss, it’s hard not to argue that Alabama could have some work to do recruiting guards for the program. Potential first-round pick in the 2025 NBA Draft Labaron Philon could declare, and there’s an obvious hole left by losing a playmaker and shooter like Sears to the league.
There could be more, too.
Need for bigs is glaring, but don’t forget about guards for Alabama basketball
Latrell Wrightsell Jr. isn’t confirmed to return to Alabama, and a cryptic Instagram story featuring the back of his jersey with a peace sign emoji didn’t help any cases being made for the graduate spending his sixth year at UA after rupturing his Achilles tendon against Oregon in November.
Expected to return, Aden Holloway will be an experienced option to start for the Crimson Tide. Granted, he’s leaps and bounds ahead in his development compared to his freshman season at Auburn, there’s always the chance that he may not heat up until the second half like he did against BYU, or be easier to shut down at 6-foot-1, much like Sears against Duke. After coming off the bench for Alabama for a year, he could also run into some growing pains readjusting to a role as a starter like he was in 26 games for the Tigers, although he averaged a minute more in the 2024-25 season with UA.
Among Alabama’s four incoming signees, including 7-footer Bucknell center transfer Noah Williamson, only one is a guard. Four-star 2025 commit Davion Hannah, who will arrive from Philon’s alma mater Link Academy, is at his most productive with space and in transition, which bodes well for the newcomer. But he entered his senior season making just 29% of three-pointers, and that’s a clear mismatch for Oats’ style of offense.
Brayden Burries, a 6-foot-4, 200 pound combo guard, would be a huge win for the Crimson Tide’s 2025 recruiting class, which lacks a five-star like the No. 11 player in the nation, per 247Sports.
Should Crimson Tide guards be less productive scorers, freshman signees Amari Allen and London Jemison would be big-time support off the bench for impact forward Mouhamed Dioubate, who was seen developing his three-point shot in the latter half of his sophomore season. Dioubate isn’t a guarantee to return, but he told the Tuscaloosa News after the loss to Duke that he plans on coming first in the leg race at the team’s annual boot camp in the next couple months, which is a promising sign that he’ll be back to compete for a starting role.
All around 6-foot-8, Allen, Jemison and Dioubate still lack the height that Nelson offered. However, freshman Aiden Sherrell, who says he’s nearing 7-feet and a half-inch, will add significant size, and can impact scoring, regardless of if he’s playing in the No. 4 or No. 5 spot. Six-foot-eleven Jarin Stevenson could also re-emerge from his sophomore slump as the NBA Draft favorite he was as a freshman, but that’s given he doesn’t choose to leave after a tough season stacked against criticism.
Looking at who the Crimson Tide is reportedly reaching out to in the portal, like rebound-grabbing LSU forward Corey Chest or 6-foot-10 Taylor Bol Bowen from FSU, it seems like Alabama has keeping a big frontcourt figured out. It seems like now it’s a question of how the Crimson Tide could put together a three-guard lineup with two creators that can score the ball, or how much depth they’ll have should guys like an injury-prone Wrightsell find themselves sidelined.
As disappointing as it was for locals who wanted to see the Paul W. Bryant alum return to his native Tuscaloosa, Alabama could afford to miss Kennesaw State transfer guard Adrian Wooley, who committed to Louisville on Monday. If the Crimson Tide doesn’t win over Miami freshman standout Jalil Bethea on his visit, or Monmouth transfer Abdi Bashir Jr., the twin brother of Auburn commit Abdul, the weeks leading up to the closing of the transfer portal window on April 22 will be critical.
A third former Alabama Crimson Tide basketball player has now officially reentered the NCAA transfer portal after a departure from the program last offseason, as reports emerged Monday morning that Rylan Griffen would be doing so.
Griffen, who spent the 2024-25 season at Kansas after transferring from Alabama, joins both Nick Pringle and Davin Cosby as members of the Crimson Tide’s Final Four team to reenter the transfer portal so far this offseason.
With the Jayhawks, Griffen appeared in 33 games at Kansas this past season as a junior, 20 of which he started. In those 33 games, Griffin averaged a combined 6.3 points, 2.1 rebounds, and 1.4 assists per game on 37.2% shooting from the field, as well as 33.6% from three and 67.5% at the free throw line.
At Alabama, Griffen, a former four-star and Top 100 recruit, appeared in a total of 73 games during his freshman and sophomore seasons with the Crimson Tide, averaging a combined 8.5 points per game. In 2023-24 as a sophomore, Griffen had a career-year by averaging 11.2 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 1.9 assists per game on 45.4% shooting from the field, as well as 39.2% from three and 81% at the free throw line.
Griffen also started 33-of-36 games as a sophomore that season, and was a key factor in Alabama reaching the Final Four. During the Crimson Tide’s five NCAA Tournament games, the guard averaged a combined 12.4 points, 1.8 rebounds, and 2.2 assists per game, while also shooting a phenomenal 13-of-27 (48.1%) from three, as well as 50% from the field.
Having reportedly reentered the NCAA transfer portal, Griffen will now be looking for a new home next season. Could a return to Tuscaloosa be a potential option?
After producing back-to-back national champions, the Big Ten has taken over the top of college football. Now, the SEC is looking to strike back in 2025.
Terrible Star Wars jokes aside, the SEC must be seething as rivals Ohio State and Michigan claim national titles. The Big Ten’s run follows a stretch in which SEC stalwarts Georgia, Alabama and LSU combined to win four straight natties. The balance of power has shifted north, and that trend appears likely to continue next fall. Two Big Ten teams — Ohio State first and Oregon third — are among the three favorites to win the 2025 national championship, with Texas holding the nation’s second-best odds, according to FanDuel.
The SEC faces major questions, and several coaches are at pivotal moments in their careers heading into 2025. Alabama fans are already questioning the future after an uninspiring start to the Kalen DeBoer era. LSU’s Brian Kelly failed to win 10 games for the first time in eight years. Georgia fell short of the national championship with a lackluster College Football Playoff loss to Notre Dame.
Still, oddsmakers project the SEC to send 12 teams to bowl games in 2025 — one fewer than last season, when Vanderbilt stormed the scene with a 7-6 record that included an upset over No. 1 Alabama.
FanDuel recently released its win totals for the SEC’s 16 teams, setting the stage for offseason speculation — and an opportunity to project whether these teams will exceed expectations or fall short. Let’s examine each team, predict every game on the schedule and see if a surprise or two awaits in 2025.
Analysis: Fading Alabama in Year 2 under Kalen DeBoer has become popular after an inconsistent 2024 season, but I believe the Tide will rebound in 2025. DeBoer’s reunion offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb and the expected transition to a quarterback better suited for the system should provide a boost.
Ty Simpson is the favorite to start under center, and DeBoer has praised him often this offseason. The expectation is for Alabama’s offense to be much more consistent. The schedule is favorable, though the toughest tests come on the road against rivals Georgia and Auburn. Those losses won’t sit well with Tide fans, but Alabama should still contend for the SEC title and a College Football Playoff spot. Pick: Over 9.5 (+110)
Analysis: Sam Pittman saved his job with a bowl appearance, but Arkansas endured significant roster turnover for a second straight offseason.
Taylen Green returns at quarterback, and while he’s prone to mistakes, he’s a big-play threat on every snap with Bobby Petrino calling the shots. The defense could take a step back without Landon Jackson rushing the passer, and early spring reports indicate struggles along the defensive line.
Despite all of this and a brutal SEC road slate, finding six wins on the schedule isn’t too difficult. Pittman cannot afford to lose the programs first-ever matchup against Arkansas State. The backlash would be unlike anything a Razorbacks coach has seen. Pick: Over 5.5 (-115)
Analysis: Auburn is a popular sleeper pick to reach the CFP, and it’s easy to see why. The Tigers are stacked, and with a competent quarterback finally at the controls, they are primed to tap into their immense offensive potential as the defense continues to improve.
Led by Cam Coleman the receiver room is loaded with potential game-breakers, and the offensive line looks solid for the first time since 2019. Auburn’s season opener at Baylor will be an early test. Road trips to Texas A&M and Oklahoma — quarterback Jackson Arnold’s former school — are dangerous. And remember, Freeze is 0-3 against Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia. Pick: Over 7.5 (-148)
Wins: Long Island, South Florida, at Miami, Mississippi State, at Kentucky, Tennessee, Florida State Losses: at LSU, Texas, at Texas A&M, Georgia, at Ole Miss
Analysis: It’s tempting to pick Florida as a potential threat to reach the CFP. The Gators have a dynamic quarterback in DJ Lagway and a solid defense, but the schedule is brutally difficult.
Trips to Miami, LSU, Texas A&M and Ole Miss will be major challenges. Florida also plays just two home games during an eight-game stretch after opening the season with back-to-back games in The Swamp. The game at Kentucky looks winnable, and we’ll side with the Gators to get revenge for last year in their early-season showdown at Miami. That projects to a record similar to last season but without a strong finish. Pick: Over 6.5 (-148)
Analysis: Georgia loses 15 starters from a team that fell short of expectations last season. So the Bulldogs might take another step backward, right? Wrong.
The Bulldogs struggled last season because receivers dropped too many passes. The defensive line, while elite at times, lacked consistency from snap to snap and game to game. That should change this fall after Kirby Smart brought in multiple game-changing receivers, led by USC’s Zachariah Branch and Texas A&M’s Noah Thomas.
Georgia remains the sport’s premier program in recruiting, player retention and development. Gunner Stockton is a gamer, and even under heavy pressure, he repeatedly delivered in the CFP semifinal against Notre Dame. Pick: Over 9.5 (-178)
Analysis: Last year Kentucky missed a bowl game last season for the first time since 2015, and quarterback issues have plagued the Wildcats for the past two seasons. Now they turn to seventh-year senior Zach Calzada, who hopes his fourth school will be his best stop.
The Wildcats relied heavily on the transfer portal to revamp the roster after a 4-8 season that included just one SEC win. However, no one truly knows how this team will perform until preseason camp begins in August.
What we do know is Calzada’s past, which featured few highlights until his two-year stint at FCS Incarnate Word. We also know Kentucky’s schedule is among the toughest in the country. The Wildcats face all three SEC playoff teams from last season and travel to South Carolina and Auburn.
They’ll need some of that Mark Stoops magic this fall. Pick: Under 4.5 (+116)
Analysis: It’s easy to question Kelly’s coaching job so far with the Tigers, but that’s not the mindset here when all the evidence points to a big season for LSU.
The Tigers return the SEC’s leading returning passer in Garrett Nussmeier, and will have tremendous weapons around him. LSU signed the nation’s No. 1 transfer class, adding eight players from SEC rivals — including dynamic pass rushers Patrick Payton and Jack Pyburn, as well as two ready-made stars at receiver in Nic Anderson and Barion Brown.
LSU is replacing four starters along an offensive line that allowed just 15 sacks last season, the best mark in the conference. The schedule looks daunting, but even with losses to the toughest opponents on the road, there’s still a clear path to the CFP.
We’ll call for an early-season coin flip to go LSU’s way at Ole Miss after losing the opener to ACC favorite Clemson. Still, this schedule looks more like a 10-win slate than the nine-win mark we’re predicting today. Pick: Over 8.5 (-144)
Analysis: It can’t get much worse than last season at Mississippi State. Two wins, a blowout home loss to Toledo, and an 0-for-the-SEC conference record is never a good look for a first-year head coach.
As expected, the Bulldogs overhauled the roster again. Jeff Lebby added 27 players from the transfer portal, ranking 28th nationally. Including high school signees there are 51 new additions to the roster — the second-highest in the country.
Baylor transfer Blake Shapen is expected to start at quarterback for a second straight year.
As for the schedule? Yikes. The Bulldogs face four playoff teams from last season, but the coaching staff had a solid game plan in a close road loss at Arizona State last fall. We’re feeling generous, so we’ll give MSU a slight edge at home against the Sun Devils this season.
The SEC schedule doesn’t offer many chances for wins. The “easiest” game might be the trip to Arkansas. It’s possible MSU could go winless in conference play again. Lebby cannot afford an early-season loss at Southern Miss. Pick: Over 3.5 (-132)
Missouri
Over/under 7.5
Wins: Central Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, South Carolina, UMass, at Vanderbilt, Mississippi State Losses: Alabama, Texas A&M, at Oklahoma, at Arkansas
Analysis: Missouri’s rise has been fun to watch the last two seasons, but how will coach Eli Drinkwitz refuel the machine? The Tigers lose quarterback Brady Cook, three starting receivers (including superstar Luther Burden) and three starters on the offensive line.
The odds of the Tigers notching a third straight 10-win season are low, given a schedule that includes Alabama, South Carolina, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma. Still, the slate is much easier compared to others in the conference. The Tigers should contend for nine wins, but eight is more likely. Pick: Over 7.5 (-105)
Analysis: It’s a make-or-break year for coach Brent Venables, and he’s betting on himself to win big. He will handle defensive play-calling duties this fall after recording a second losing season in three years. Venables also made big changes on offense in hiring Washington State coordinator Ben Arbuckle, who brought along top-tier quarterback John Mateer to turn around a struggling Sooners attack.
The offensive line should be better after leading the nation in sacks allowed, as they mixed and matched lineups during the first nine weeks of last season. The receiver room has to improve after an injury-plagued year led to infuriating inconsistency across the offense, which ranked 124th in yards per play (4.81) and 128th in yards per pass attempt (6.1).
Venables pushed the right buttons in the offseason, but will it translate to more than six wins? Week 2 brings a home date with Michigan and an opportunity to get the program back on the map. Trips to Tennessee, Alabama and South Carolina are troublesome. Still, it’s not difficult to find seven wins on the schedule. These Sooners could surprise in the SEC this fall. Pick: Over 6.5 (-110)
Ole Miss
Over/under 8.5
Wins: Georgia State, at Kentucky, Arkansas, Tulane, Washington State, South Carolina, The Citadel, Florida, at Mississippi State Losses: LSU, at Georgia, at Oklahoma
Analysis: Are we falling for Lane Kiffin’s tricks again? Absolutely. The Rebels are sneakily stacked this year, even though many will point to the departures of six receivers, record-setting passer Jaxson Dart and superstar pass rusher Walter Nolen as significant losses. I’ll counter with the Portal King’s transfer class, which ranked No. 2 in the country. The impressive haul includes four pass catchers with more than 400 yards receiving last season.
Quarterback Austin Simmons has been impressive in spot duty and spring drills after spending two years as a backup. He knows the system and is prepared to shine. Dare we say (again) that Ole Miss might be a playoff contender this season? Pick: Over 8.5 (-188)
Analysis: How could you not fall in love with South Carolina late last season? Quarterback LaNorris Sellers blossomed into a star, leading a late-season road upset over Clemson that put the nine-win Gamecocks firmly in the playoff conversation. All-American defensive end Kyle Kennard is off to the NFL, but edge rusher Dylan Stewart is a superstar in waiting after piling up 51 pressures as a true freshman last season, according to Pro Football Focus. The defense should be stout once again.
So, why the hesitation on picking a nine- or 10-win season? The receiver room doesn’t seem all that great, and Sellers needs help as he continues to develop as a passer. Also, that schedule is challenging. Trips to Missouri, LSU and Ole Miss are tricky, and hosting Alabama, Oklahoma and ACC favorite Clemson is no picnic. Still, the Gamecocks’ returning starters won’t lack confidence after close calls with Alabama and LSU last season. Pick: Under 7.5 (+118)
Tennessee
Over/under 9.5
Wins: Syracuse, East Tennessee State, Georgia, UAB, at Mississippi State, Arkansas, at Kentucky, Oklahoma, New Mexico State, Vanderbilt Losses: at Alabama, at Florida
Analysis: This is an incredibly difficult pick, so I’m not sure I would touch this win total if I were a betting man. I believe the margin for error is wide for the Volunteers this fall — wider than LSU and Ole Miss — which makes me hesitate. Even so, I’m high on Rocky Top this offseason. I love Nico Iamaleava, and though he faces immense pressure with an $8 million NIL deal, he has the talent to excel in Josh Heupel’s offense this fall. Plus, the defense is set to continue its top-10 finishes with 67% of its production returning, according to ESPN’s SP+.
Oh, and that schedule is conducive to a double-digit win season. The Vols get Georgia and Oklahoma at home and travel to Alabama and Florida. We’ll go with an upset win against Georgia to push the Vols to 10 victories. There’s a wide spread here, and four losses are not out of the question, either.
Analysis: Before we discuss Arch Madness, let’s focus on a few issues the Longhorns must address this offseason. Texas breaks in a new offensive line and must replace two of its top three receivers and two stellar defensive tackles. That said, the Longhorns have recruited exceptionally well and hit on some big pickups in the transfer portal, setting Arch Manning up for a big debut season as the full-time starting quarterback.
Many will project Texas’ season based on its performance in the season opener at Ohio State, but we’ll use that as a barometer rather than a judgment call. In fact, we’re picking a loss. The toughest games on the schedule are at Georgia and Florida. We see a path to 10 wins, but barely.
Analysis: The Aggies will be a popular dark horse pick to win the SEC, but their schedule paints a much different picture. Trips to Notre Dame, LSU, Texas and Missouri more than make up for dodging Alabama. Mike Elko returns 71% of the team’s production, ranking sixth in the country, and all five starters along the offensive line are back to protect quarterback Marcel Reed.
Again, we understand the hupe, but we can’t ignore their 1-4 finish to last season and the incredibly difficult schedule this fall.
Wins: Charleston Southern, Georgia State, Utah State, Kentucky Losses: at Virginia Tech, at South Carolina, at Alabama, LSU, Missouri, at Texas, Auburn, at Tennessee
Analysis: You want to love Vanderbilt. Quarterback Diego Pavia makes this team must-see TV nearly every week, and with the eighth-most returning production in the country, the Commodores are in position to reach a bowl game for a second straight year.
There’s just one problem: Alabama isn’t coming to town, and neither is Tennessee. The brutal schedule makes it difficult to pick up wins on the road with Virginia Tech, South Carolina, Alabama, Texas and Tennessee on the schedule.
