Alabama has cut down on its turnover woes, but has regressed defensively where it matters most: in the paint.
It’s been a while since we checked in on our semi-regular data roundup of the Crimson Tide. And, I wish I had better news to report, overall.
Yet again, Alabama finds itself limping across the finish line into March, where it has gone 2-4 against elite competition, dropped both road games, and lost a pair at home. Much of this has unfortunately become a staple of Oats’ teams.
- Last season, the Crimson Tide lost three of its final five games, then dropped a first game SEC beating to Florida to drag itself into the SEC tournament. The Final Four run was so unlikely because no one gave the defensively-challenged Tide much of a chance.
- In 2022-2023, the SEC Champs dropped their final game, and two of their final five contests, before being unceremoniously bounced in the Sweet 16 by the nasty, physical Aztecs.
- 2021-2022 saw ‘Bama lose three of its final five (including another Senior Night), lose in the first round of the SEC tournament, and then meekly bow out in the first round of the NCAA tourney.
- 2020-2021 actually did see a good finish, with ‘Bama going 8-2 down the stretch, running the SEC tournament, and then making a Sweet 16. Just a coincidence that it was Herb Jones final season, I’m sure.
- Nate Oats first season, the ‘Rona year, probably deserves an asterisk. But nevertheless, Alabama finished 3-7 in March and February before the season was cancelled.
All told, in six years now, Alabama: has lost half of its Senior Night games; has gone 34-25 in the final month of play, 17-18 on the road in the final month, and went a miserable 2-15 vs. ranked teams in the final month (both occurred this season).
I just don’t know the answer here either. Is Alabama just so worn down by season’s end from their style of play and practice? Does CNO’s brutal scheduling mean these guys are running on fumeafter three-dozen high stakes games? Is there a recruiting issue, such that the Tide has lacked strong internal leadership or competitive fire? Is it a player or coaching issue, one where people are more focused on the games ahead of them rather than the one that evening?
Whatever it is, it is worrisome. Elite programs simply do not do this — every game should not be a crapshoot; the home floor should be unassailable; and ranked teams should not dominate ‘Bama.
I will take a bullet for Oats, and the complaints here are good ones to have given the state of the program the previous two decades. But, he built this program and with it the expectations of title contention. And, CNO is among the best paid in the business, and welcomed the expectations. With those lofty goals come valid complaints. So, we can’t pretend that there’s not a systemic issue here, and nowhere is that more apparent than this season, where the Tide has consistently been one or two plays short down the stretch — and has been simply demolished all season long in the paint. Again.
Outhustled.
Outmuscled.
If ‘Bama flops stupendously in the Tourney, that will be the epitaph for what we would all call an underachieving season.
Tale of The Tape: Alabama 23-7 (12-5, 3rd)
AP: No. 7 (last week 6)
Coaches: No. 6 (last week No. 5)
RPI: No. 2 (last week 2)
NET Ranking: No. 6 (last week 6, 9-7 Q1)
Best NET Win: No. 3 Houston
Worst NET Loss: No. 30 Oregon
SOS: 2nd
Scoring Offense: 1st (91.1 PPG)
Asst/TO ratio: 99th (1.31 to 1)
Bench PPG: 6th (34.27)
Effective Shooting: 17th (.565)
Break Points: 30th (13.77)
3PA PG: 7th (29.9)
3P%: 114th (35.12%)
FTA PG: 5th (26.2)
FT%: 191st (71.85%)
TO PG: 277th (12.9 PG)
Scoring Defense: 344th (80.7 PPG)
FG% Defense: 86th (42.93%)
3PT Defense: 19th (30.1%)
Def. Reb. PG: 1st (30.31)
Off. Reb. PG: 23rd (13.27)
Total Reb. PG: 1st (43.4)
Reb. Margin: 18th (6.0 PG)
TO Forced PG: 308th (10.34 PG)
TO Margin: 326th (-2.5 PG)
Ken Pom: 6th (3 Off, 39 Defense, 1st tempo)
Evan Miya: 5th (3 Off, 31 Defense, 1st Tempo)
Bart Torvik: 5th (3 Off, 31 Defense, 1st Tempo)
This Week’s Most Impressive Stat: Defensive Rebounding: Hard to be better than first.
Stat That Tells A Darker Story: Scoring defense — There are plenty of tempo teams that don’t surrender 80 points a night. Alabama’s defense is second in the major conferences behind only lowly Miami (6-24, and coach shopping).
What Changed Since Last Time: The Tide’s perimeter defense is a lot better, turnovers are down some. But ‘Bama’s offensive rebounding fell off a cliff, as did their post defense. The latter has been especially bad — ‘Bama has been cooked near the rim the last month. It is probably not a coincidence that Alabama is trending for a 2-5 finish.
Next up, let’s take a look at some bracket projections.
BRACKETOLOGY
Chris Dobbertean’s Blogging the Bracket: 1-line, West
- This was dated 4 March, before Alabama’s latest home disaster. I don’t see any path forward for the Tide be a one-seed. And it’s just as good too, if this is the region — Alabama’s shoddy interior defense would get mauled by the Cyclones or Boilermakers, and that rematch with Illinois and Vandy, as well as a hot Louisville team, aren’t gimmes either. Oh, look! There’s an Ole Miss team who also demolished ‘Bama!
Still, it’s a cakewalk beside our next contender…
Jerry Palm (CBS Sports): 2-line, East
- This is, by far, the recipe for a first weekend flameout. BYU’s dominant interior game is trouble right out of the gate; two teams that already beat ‘Bama; and then the No. 1 and No. 3 defenses in the country — one of whom has the likely Nat’l Player of the Year Wooden winner. Which assumes ‘Bama could even make it past Big Dick Rick…and he’s already 1-0 against Nate Oats with a far worse team than St. John’s. There is less than a 0.00% chance that this soft Alabama squad would make it to the Final Four. And I don’t even know they make it past BYU to the Sweet 16.
Lunardi (ESPN): 2-line Midwest
- A bit more balanced, but not many easy games either. South Alabama’s outstanding defense and deliberative play are basically like playing Midmajor Tennessee. A likely rematch with an outstanding Memphis team. Whoever survives the defensive slugfest between red-hot Wisconsin and Louisville. Two teams that beat the Tide on the other half of the pod. And waiting at the end of the rainbow, a rematch with the Cougars — they of the elite defense and 40% perimeter shooting. Yeesh. And this is the easiest region.
