Entering its second bye week and then the month of November, Alabama remains squarely on the bubble of the College Football Playoff picture even after a 34-0 win over Missouri.
The Tide was not among the 12 teams projected Sunday for the playoff field by ESPN’s Heather Dinich, and none of ESPN’s 12 college football reporters had Alabama among their predicted teams in the field Sunday.
Alabama remains behind Georgia and Texas in each of those playoff projections, and at least one other SEC team — Texas A&M and/or Tennessee — is also slotted into the field before the Tide.
Updated bowl projections are still emerging Sunday, but 247 Sports’ Brad Crawford puts Alabama in the Citrus Bowl against Illinois and out of the 12-team playoff field.
To this point, Alabama’s schedule ranks fifth-hardest in the country by ESPN and the Tide owns a signature win over Georgia to show the College Football Playoff committee. But its remaining schedule — at LSU, vs. Mercer, at Oklahoma and vs. Auburn — ranks 31st in the country.
Alabama’s path to the playoff absolutely includes winning out, but the question is whether Alabama’s remaining games offer enough opportunity to push into the Tide into playoff field on its own. Would a road win at Baton Rouge assure the Tide a playoff spot — especially after LSU lost Saturday night to Texas A&M?
Right now, it’s too soon to say Alabama is guaranteed a playoff spot if it finishes 10-2 given variables within the SEC, across other conferences and with Notre Dame.
However, computer models generally favor Alabama’s playoff chances. ESPN’s FPI assigns each team a percentage chance of making the playoff, and as of Sunday morning, Alabama has a 53.2% chance of making it:
Miami: 89.6%
Oregon: 87.0%
Georgia: 84.7%
Penn State: 84.2%
Texas: 75.3%
Ohio State: 72.6%
Indiana: 68.6%
Tennessee: 67.8%
Boise State: 60.5%
Notre Dame: 58.6%
BYU: 57.2%
Alabama: 53.2%
Texas A&M: 46.6%
Iowa State: 45.6%
K-State: 38.9%
Clemson: 32.4%
Some other notes Sunday morning:
Alabama remains a long shot to make the SEC championship game, with Georgia, Texas and Texas A&M being the three teams with the best chances of making it to Atlanta.
ESPN’s FPI ranks Alabama as the No. 3 team in the country behind Texas and Ohio State. ESPN’s efficiency metric slots Alabama at No. 11 with the 13th-most efficient offense and 11th-most efficient defense.
Alabama ranks No. 5 in ESPN’s SP+ metric.
Alabama’s odds to win the national championship remain unchanged Sunday on Caesars from before the Missouri game. The Tide is still +1600, behind Georgia (+340), Ohio State (+425), Oregon (+475), Texas (+475), Penn State (+1200), and matched with Tennessee (+1600) and Clemson (+1600).
BetMGM has longer odds for Alabama to win the national title at +2000. That’s behind Georgia (+325), Ohio State (+450), Oregon (+500), Texas (+550), Penn State (+1400), Tennessee (+1500), Clemson (+1600) and Miami (+1800).
Alabama is tied with Texas A&M for the 13th-highest odds on BetMGM to make the playoff at -105. The list: Oregon -3000; Georgia -1600; Ohio State -1000; Texas -900; Penn State -650; Miami -600; Clemson -185; Notre Dame -175; Tennessee -175; Boise State -175; Iowa State -140; BYU -125; Alabama -105; Texas A&M -105; Indiana +110
Alabama learns spot in polls after shutting out Missouri
Only one team ranked ahead of Alabama last week lost this past weekend.
Mike Rodak
Alabama on Sunday moved up one spot in the coaches poll to No. 14 after shutting out Missouri, 34-0, at home.
Only one team ranked higher than Alabama (No. 15 last week) lost this past weekend. LSU, which was ranked No. 7 in the coaches poll, fell to No. 14 Texas A&M. The Tigers dropped to No. 16 on Sunday while the Aggies moved up to No. 11.
Alabama and LSU are both off this week before playing in Baton Rouge on November 9.
The Associated Press poll will be released later Sunday.
Coaches poll top 15:
1. Oregon (53)
2. Georgia (1)
3. Penn State
4. Ohio State
5. Miami
6. Texas
7. Tennessee
8. Clemson
9. Notre Dame
10. Iowa State
11. Texas A&M
12. BYU
13. Indiana
14. Alabama
15. Kansas State
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