There is a case where Wisconsin wins their season finale and doesn’t get a double-bye.

The Wisconsin Badgers picked up the victory over the Minnesota Golden Gophers on Wednesday, improving them to 23-7 on the season and 13-6 in conference play with one game to go.

At the moment, the biggest race for the Badgers is the one for a top-four seed in the Big Ten Tournament. Wisconsin currently presides in that top four, but that isn’t a guarantee, even if the Badgers win their season finale on Saturday against Penn State.

Let’s break down where the standings currently sit and what the possible scenarios are for the Badgers using the Big Ten tiebreaker rules.

Current standings

Here’s the current top five of the Big Ten standings and their conference records:

1. Michigan State (15-3)

2. Michigan (14-5)

3. Maryland (13-6)

4. Purdue (13-6)

5. Wisconsin (13-6)

Currently, Michigan State is alone at the top, and they have a chance to clinch the Big Ten regular-season title on Thursday when they face the Iowa Hawkeyes on the road.

Assuming they do win, they’d be two games ahead of Michigan and three games ahead of Michigan, Maryland, Wisconsin, and Purdue.

Ultimately, it feels like the Big Ten race will come down to the latter four teams. Currently, Michigan stands one game up of Maryland, Wisconsin, and Purdue, but they face Michigan State on the road to end their season on Sunday.

Maryland, Wisconsin, and Purdue are all tied up in the standings. Here’s how the tiebreaker rules work for the Big Ten:

1. Head-to-Head Win Percentage in games between the tiebreaker teams.

2. Win Percentage against the 1st place team(s). If tied, apply the tiebreaker to the 2nd place team(s) and so forth.

3. Win Percentage against Division I teams.

4. Coin Flip

Let’s go through the tiebreakers.

Looking at the head-to-head win percentage between the tiebreaker teams, each team is 1-1 in the pool. Maryland beat Wisconsin. Wisconsin beat Purdue. And Purdue beat Maryland. So, we move on to the second tiebreaker.

Well, all three teams lost to Michigan State, so we move forward to the second-place team, which is Michigan. Maryland is 1-0 in that matchup. Purdue is 1-1 and Wisconsin is 0-1. So, Maryland is seeded as the No. 3 team, while Purdue is No. 4, and Wisconsin is No. 5.

Going back to the head-to-head, Wisconsin beat Purdue in their lone game this season, which is why they’re seeded fourth and the Boilermakers are fifth currently.

But, that can all change. What is the doomsday scenario for the Badgers?

How things can get ugly

Let’s look back at the current Big Ten standings.

1. Michigan State (15-3)

2. Michigan (14-5)

3. Maryland (13-6)

4. Purdue (13-6)

5. Wisconsin (13-6)

As mentioned, Michigan State figures to be two games ahead of the pack with a win on Friday, with Michigan being one game ahead of the three teams vying for the double-bye.

What if Michigan loses to Michigan State in their final game? Well, that would drop their conference record to 14-6.

Then, what if Maryland beats Northwestern (pretty realistic), Wisconsin beats Penn State (pretty realistic), and Purdue beats Illinois (tough game on the road, but it’s possible)?

That would put Michigan, Maryland, Wisconsin, and Purdue in a crazy four-way tie, taking us back to the tiebreaker.

Looking back at the tiebreakers, Purdue has a 2-2 record, Maryland has a 2-1 record, Wisconsin has a 1-2 record, and Michigan has a 2-2 record against common opponents.

As the top tiebreaker is seeding based on head-to-head win percentage, Maryland would jump to No. 2, Purdue and Michigan would be in a tiebreaker for No. 3, and Wisconsin would drop all the way to No. 5.

So, in the scenario that Michigan loses to Michigan State, while Maryland, Wisconsin, and Purdue all won, the Badgers would actually fall to No. 5 and miss out on the double-bye.

There is another scenario where the Badgers would end up as the No. 5 seed: if all four teams win.

If Michigan wins, assuming Maryland, Wisconsin, and Purdue all win too, then the Badgers are back in the three-way tie with Maryland, and Purdue. In that case, Maryland would be No. 3, Purdue would be No. 4, and Wisconsin would stay at No. 5 for the reasons outlined above.

So, what needs to happen?

How the Badgers get a top-four seed

To get a top-four seed and the coveted double bye, first of all, Wisconsin needs to beat Penn State. That’s an obvious check mark.

But, after that, the Badgers needs one of Maryland and Purdue to lose.

If Michigan loses but Maryland also loses and Purdue wins, the Badgers would be in a three-way tie with the Wolverines and the Boilermakers for the No. 2 seed. There, Michigan has a 2-1 record against common opponents, while the Badgers are 1-1 and the Boilermakers are 1-2.

So, Michigan would get the No. 2 seed, while Wisconsin is at No. 3 and Purdue jumps to No. 4.

And if Michigan loses, but Purdue also loses and Maryland wins, the Badgers would be in a three-way tie with Michigan and Maryland for the No. 2 seed. There, Maryland has a 2-0 record against common opponents, while the Wolverines are 1-1 and the Badgers are 2-0.

So, Maryland would get the No. 2 seed, while Michigan is at No. 3, and Wisconsin is at No. 4.

There is one more scenario, although they are more unlikely.

If Wisconsin wins, but Maryland and Purdue both lose, then the Badgers would clinch the No. 3 seed in the Big Ten Tournament.

Ultimately, there are a lot of scenarios where the Badgers can get a top-four seed in the conference with one game to go. But, following their loss to Michigan State, Wisconsin will need some help, be it a team winning or a team losing, to get that coveted double-bye.