Wisconsin basketball (22-6, 12-5 Big Ten) enters the final turn of the regular season just two games back of Michigan State and Michigan for first place in the Big Ten standings.
The Badgers have three games remaining: at Michigan State, at Minnesota and vs. Penn State. While unlikely, the team can still win out, get some help and clinch a share of the conference title.
The first step for that scenario to come to fruition is a win at Michigan State on Sunday. The Badgers enter the game as the higher ranked team in KenPom (No. 8 vs. No. 10) and the NCAA NET (No. 12 vs. No. 13). But Michigan State has played above its perceived ability all season, including in recent wins at Maryland and at Michigan. The Spartans are also one of the top rebounding teams in the sport, an area where the Badgers occasionally struggle, and get the game in the Breslin Center — one of the toughest places to play in the sport.
Wisconsin has won two straight road games over its rival. It will face a tough task as it attempts to extend that streak to three.
As the hours count down before Sunday’s marquee matchup, it’s worth taking a look at how ESPN’s BPI forecasts the rest of the Badgers’ season. Here are the index’s implied odds for every remaining game, as well as for the team’s outside chance at a conference title:
March 2 at Michigan State
Wisconsin enters Sunday’s matchup against Michigan State as the clear underdog. The game’s location should play a major role in that regard, as should Michigan State’s recent string of wins against top opponents. Wisconsin needs a win to extend any outside chance at a conference title. To do so, the team will need season-best efforts from forwards Steven Crowl and Nolan Winter, plus big offensive showings from John Tonje and John Blackwell.
ESPN forecast: Michigan State 66.6%, Wisconsin 33.4%
March 5 at Minnesota
Wisconsin’s trip to Minnesota could become a dangerous trap game, especially if the Badgers beat the Spartans. Minnesota has quietly won three of six, jumping into the 15-team Big Ten Tournament field. ESPN’s BPI still sees the Badgers as clear favorites. Wisconsin fans should hope that the team’s let-down against Oregon becomes its only such result during the stretch run.
ESPN forecast: Wisconsin 75.8%, Minnesota 24.2%
March 8 vs. Penn State
Wisconsin closes the season at home against a Penn State team that is among the conference’s worst. The team has lost eight of its last 10, the latest a road loss at Indiana. It is set to miss the 15-team conference tournament field. Wisconsin’s implied odds, therefore, are no surprise. The bigger question is whether the game carries Big Ten title stakes.
ESPN forecast: Wisconsin 84.9%, Penn State 15.1%
In all, BPI lists Wisconsin’s odds to win out at 21.4%.
Conference Title Odds
Michigan State: 81.9% (to clinch at least a share of the title)
Michigan: 40.3%
Wisconsin: 4.3%
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