Manchester City find themselves in unfamiliar territory under Pep Guardiola.
A 1-0 defeat at Nottingham Forest marked their ninth league loss of the season, matching their highest total for league defeats in a campaign during Guardiola’s tenure.
For the first time under his leadership, qualification for the Champions League is now at risk.
This situation would have been unimaginable when City secured their fourth consecutive league title last season.
While a fifth-place finish could still offer a Champions League opportunity, there is only a five-point gap between fourth-placed City and Fulham in 10th as the season nears its conclusion.
City’s ‘crisis’ by the numbers
Manchester City has not failed to secure Champions League qualification since the 2009-10 season.
They have made it to the tournament without much difficulty in seven out of Guardiola’s eight full seasons at the pp Etihad.
The only exception came in Guardiola’s first season, when City clinched Champions League qualification on the final day of the 2016-17 campaign by finishing third.
City’s recent form doesn’t make for pleasant reading.
- City’s nine Premier League defeats this season equals the most under Guardiola.
- City have conceded 38 goals in 28 matches this season, more than in seven of their eight full campaigns under Guardiola.
- City have lost 15 of their last 30 matches across all competitions. The previous 15 defeats before that came over a span of 169 matches.
Speaking to TNT Sports, former Everton and Swansea defender Ashley Williams summed up the unusual position City now find themselves in.
“We’re so accustomed to seeing Man City be exceptional, so a season like this feels like a crisis,” said Williams.
Former City defender Joleon Lescott stated it would be a “disaster” if City failed to reach the Champions League.
“City still control their own destiny. It would be a catastrophe if they didn’t secure a top-four finish,” he said.
Manchester City have 10 matches left in their Premier League season. Guardiola says his team must approach every game as a “final,” starting with the visit of Brighton, who are just one point behind City, to the Etihad next Saturday.
“We have 10 games to qualify,” Guardiola said. “We need to win games to progress and move on to the next one. Every season the Premier League improves. We have 10 finals ahead.”
“We haven’t won enough games in a row to be safe. We need to do something; it doesn’t happen by itself.”
City spent over £180m in the January transfer window, signing players like Nico Gonzalez and Omar Marmoush. However, their form has remained inconsistent, with City winning four and losing five of their nine matches since the window closed.
Former Manchester United captain Rio Ferdinand believes the new signings are struggling due to the team’s instability. “I don’t think they brought in bad players, but they’ve arrived at a time of instability,” Ferdinand told TNT Sports. “You can’t count City out; they have the players and the manager.”
‘City need Champions League to attract top players’
Former England defender Lescott says City must qualify for the Champions League to attract top players this summer.
“If you want elite players, Manchester City needs Champions League football,” Lescott told TNT Sports. “Top players want Champions League football.”
Failing to qualify for the Champions League would also harm the club financially. City earned around £90m from their quarter-final exit in the Champions League last season. Their play-off loss to Real Madrid this season means they will earn approximately £28m less, with an estimated £64m windfall this time.
But missing out on the competition next season would be much more costly.
Rivals Manchester United recently reported their quarterly results, showing a 12% revenue drop—a £25m loss—after failing to qualify for the Champions League and entering the Europa League instead.
Missing the Champions League can cost clubs about £100m in lost revenue annually.
City’s Remaining Premier League Fixtures
- Man City v Brighton – 15 March
- Man City v Leicester – 2 April
- Man Utd v Man City – 6 April
- Man City v Crystal Palace – 12 April
- Everton v Man City – 19 April
- Man City v Aston Villa – 28 April
- Man City v Wolves – 3 May
- Southampton v Man City – 10 May
- Man City v Bournemouth – 18 May
- Fulham v Man City – 25 May
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