Lions massive trade up for Isaac TeSlaa was actually near-even value

 

The Detroit Lions actually got much better value than you may think for their big trade up for Isaac TeSlaa.

 

On the surface, it looks like the Detroit Lions paid out a mini-fortune to draft Arkansas wide receiver Isaac TeSlaa at the top of the third round. As a reminder, here are the trade terms the Lions made with the Jacksonville Jaguars.

 

Lions receive:

 

Pick 70 — WR Isaac TeSlaa

Pick 182 (sixth round)

2026 sixth-round pick

Jaguars receive:

 

Pick 102 (third round)

2026 third-round pick

2026 third-round pick

In essence, you could say the Lions spent three third-round picks (one this year, two next year) for TeSlaa and a two sixth-round picks.

 

The trade cost the Lions their own third-round pick plus the third-round pick they got in 2026 thanks to the Rooney Rule which awarded the Lions a 2025 and 2026 third-round pick after Aaron Glenn was hired as the New York Jets head coach.

 

This looks like a big overpay on the surface—especially for a player like TeSlaa, who some had as a Day 3 option. But, interestingly enough, if you look at some NFL Draft trade charts, this trade was remarkably even.

 

Now, it’s worth noting I took a few liberties here. I assumed that both of the Lions’ 2026 third-round picks will happen late in the round. Their compensatory pick will come at the end of the round, but Detroit’s own third-round pick could land anywhere depending on how good they are in 2025. I also assumed the Jaguars’ 2026 sixth-round pick—which is being sent to Detroit—will be a mid-round pick.

 

Additionally, the model discounts future picks by a rolling scale. I took a modest rate of a 40% discount—which is as close to how many teams treat future picks, although each team is different.

 

But looking at the numbers, by the Jimmy Johnson chart, the Lions actually gained value in the trade—a fourth-round pick, no less. However, the other five models favor the Jaguars. Although the tipping of the scales is anywhere from a mid fifth-round pick to a late seventh.

 

Regardless of which model you value the most, it’s clear this trade is not as lopsided as it may appear on the surface.