The SEC Championship pairing will not be decided until the final weekend of the regular season, but the race is down to four teams following Week 12’s results. Fifth-ranked Georgia’s is the only team done with SEC play following Saturday night’s impressive win over Texas, but still needs help in getting to the title game.
No. 3 Texas A&M, the league’s only unbeaten, is one win away from getting to the SEC Championship Game for the first time. Alabama appears to control its own destiny despite losing to Oklahoma, however, a multi-team tiebreaker scenario could keep the Crimson Tide home even with a win over Auburn in the Iron Bowl.
Despite Alabama’s head-to-head win over Georgia in September, the SEC’s tiebreaker policy indicates it would be nullified in the event of a three-team tie that includes Ole Miss. Alabama, Georgia and Ole Miss all did not play each other this season and no team went 0-2 or 2-0 within that group.
The conference would then move to a “strength of schedule” metric to determine the title contenders between the Crimson Tide, Bulldogs and Rebels. Going into the weeds here, but the results of three SEC games left on the schedule — Florida vs. Tennessee Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky and Arkansas vs. Missouri — would determine who owns the SOS edge for the final spot.
Should Texas A&M and Alabama meet, the Aggies would have locked in a top-4 seed and opening-round bye in the College Football Playoff. Texas A&M could even overtake top-ranked Ohio State with 13-0 finish given the strength of schedule.
If the Crimson Tide lose to Texas A&M in the title game and finish 10-3 overall, a scenario can emerge in which Georgia is the SEC’s second top-4 seed. Ole Miss is a considerable long shot to play in the SEC title game. Lane Kiffin and the Rebels are favored to beat Mississippi State, but upset wins from Auburn and Texas during rivalry weekend is a lot to ask.
Texas A&M reaches SEC Championship if …
Beat Texas OR
Auburn beats Alabama, Mississippi State beats Ole Miss
Alabama reaches SEC Championship if …
Beat Auburn, Texas beats Texas A&M OR
Beat Auburn, Mississippi State beats Ole Miss OR
Beat Auburn; Alabama wins three-way tie with Ole Miss/Georgia based on SEC opponent winning percentage
Georgia reaches SEC Championship if …
Auburn beats Alabama OR
Texas beats Texas A&M OR
Ole Miss beats Mississippi State; Georgia wins three-way tie with Alabama/Ole Miss based on SEC opponent winning percentage
Ole Miss reaches SEC Championship if …
Beat Mississippi State, Texas beats Texas A&M, Auburn beats Alabama
SEC tiebreaker policy
The following procedures will be used, in order, to determine that game’s entries:
A. Head-to-head competition among the tied teams
B. Record versus all common conference opponents among the tied teams
C. Record against highest (best) placed common conference opponent in the conference standings, and proceeding through the conference standings among the tied teams
D. Cumulative Conference winning percentage of all conference opponents among the tied teams
E. Capped relative total scoring margin (see Appendix A) per SportSource Analytics versus all conference opponents among the tied teams
F. Random draw of the tied teams
If a tiebreaker produces standings with two teams tied for first place in league play, they are both selected for the championship game. To decide the seeding of the two teams, they will progress through the two-team tiebreaker procedures, which determines the home and away designation for the SEC Championship Game.
In the event of a two-team tie for second place, the SEC will use the following procedure:
A. Head-to-head competition among the two tied teams
B. Record versus all common conference opponents among the two tied teams
C. Record against highest (best) placed common conference opponent, proceeding through the Conference standings among the tied teams
D. Cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents among the tied teams
E. Capped relative total scoring margin per SportSource Analytics versus all conference opponents among the tied teams
F. Random draw of the tied teams
If there’s a three-team tie for first place, those aforementioned steps will be used in descending order until two teams who stand alone are determined.
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