Jan. 20, 2025
About the Author: Joshua Queipo
Bucs wide receiver Chris Godwin represents the biggest pending internal free agent the team has in the 2025 offseason. There seems to be a great deal of mutual interest between him and Tampa Bay on the two sides reuniting for his third NFL contract.
But what that contract will look like is a fascinating proposition. I want to take you through my process in trying to determine what a fair deal between the two sides will look like.
Chris Godwin’s Current Three-Year Comps
In NFL contract negotiations both sides of the negotiating table look to find comparable players who have already signed contracts as a baseline for their offers. When I am projecting, I like to look at the most recent three-year sample size and try and find the most comparable players at the metrics that correlate best with contract history.
In the wide receiver market those metrics are catches, receiving yards, yards per route run and touchdown catches. Over the past three seasons Chris Godwin has 237 catches, 2,623 yards, 1.89 yards per route run and 10 touchdowns. The three closest receivers in terms of production in a contract year since 2020 are:
Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photo by: USA Today
Jarvis Landry (2022) – 207 catches, 2,584 yards, 1.99 yds/rr, 11 touchdowns
- Cole Beasley (2022) – 231 catches, 2,438 yards, 1.70 yds/rr, 11 touchdowns
- Jakobi Meyers (2023) – 209 catches, 2,398 yards, 1.87 yds/rr, eight touchdowns
Those three signed contracts that averaged 2.28% of the salary cap in the year they signed as an average per year salary. If we were to straight apply that to the likely $275 million salary cap in 2025 it would be an APY of just over $6.25 million. The formula’s that I use estimated a range of $11.7 – $13.0 million APY for Godwin.
Interestingly, all three of those receivers were primarily slot players and Godwin has enjoyed his best seasons playing in the slot. And 62% of Godwin’s snaps last year came in the slot, so he’s sitting at 55% for his career. Meyers is at 51% for his career, while Beasley was at 86% and Landry was at 67.2%, respectively, throughout their careers.
How Chris Godwin’s Projection Looked Headed Into 2024
But as we all know, much of Chris Godwin’s production was hampered by his season-ending ankle dislocation in Week 7. Looking at Godwin’s three-season production headed into 2024, and we get elevated numbers of 285 catches, 3,150 yards, 1.85 yds/rr and 10 touchdowns. His three closest comps for that time frame were:
- Michael Pittman Jr. (2024) – 296 catches, 3,159 yards, 1.79 yds/rr, 14 touchdowns
- Robert Woods (2020) – 232 catches, 3,134 yards, 2.01 yds/rr, 13 touchdowns
- D.J. Moore (2022) – 246 catches, 3,525 yards, 2.03 yds/rr, 12 touchdowns
The average of those three receivers’ APY’s as a percentage of cap in the year signed was just over 9%. Apply that to 2025’s estimated salary cap and you get an APY of about $25 million. My projection had him estimated for exactly that.
What Could Have Been…
Follow me down an alternate reality where Chris Godwin never got hurt against the Ravens and kept up his torrid pace for the entire season. He was projected to finish 2024 with 121 catches for 1,399 yards and 12 touchdowns while averaging 2.36 yards/route run. Those numbers would bring his three-year total to 308 catches, 3,446 yards, 1.98 yards/rr and 17 touchdowns. His three closest comps would then be:
- D.J. Moore (2024) – 252 catches, 3,409 yards, 1.98 yds/rr, 19 touchdowns
- Allen Robinson II (2021) – 255 catches, 3,151 yards, 1.87 yds/rr, 17 touchdowns
- Keenan Allen (2020) – 303 catches, 3,788 yards, 2.34 yds/rr, 18 touchdowns
The average APY of those contracts as a percent of cap is 9.9%. That translates to $27.25 million per year and our projection system had that projection at $30 million.
Finding The Right Value Given What Has Happened
Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photo by: USA Today
Unfortunately for Chris Godwin, the injury did occur and absolutely has an impact on his value in free agency in 2025. That $27.25 – $30 million range is off the table completely. The $23-25 million range is possible, but unlikely at this point, especially with Mike Evans making $23 million in 2024.
The projected number I have settled into for Godwin is $19 million per year. It represents the average of the 2024 projection of $25 million and 2025’s high-end projection of $13 million. That comes out to $19 million per year.
In terms of length, three years has been the sweet spot that receivers have been trying to get to in deals. Godwin himself went for a three-year deal at $20 million per seasonon his last contract in 2022. And with him entering his age-29 season in 2025, Godwin will want more than a one- or two-year deal.
And the Bucs won’t want to go to four or more years at this point in his career. So another three-year deal mixes security for Godwin well with flexibility for the team.
Other Notes
Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photo by: USA Today
The Bucs could save some cap space if they are able to re-sign Chris Godwin before February 20. That is the date his current contract voids and his 2026 and 2027 void money accelerates into the 2025 cap. But this doesn’t make an extension a foregone conclusion – and certainly not by that date.
The Bucs have shown they will not let a deadline coerce them into a hastily negotiated deal. And the team has plenty of other maneuvers it can make to create cap space to where they don’t have to rely on a Godwin extension.
It should also be mentioned that there is an infinitesimal chance that they use the franchise tag on Godwin. While the general tag for wide receivers is around $25.7 million, the Bucs have already tagged Godwin twice before, first in 2021 and then again in 2022.
The NFL/NFLPA collective bargaining agreement requires that a player tagged three times be paid either 120% of the average of the Top 5 salaries at the position ($32,200,500), 144% of the player’s previous salary ($28,800,000) or the average of the Top 5 salaries for the highest paid position in the league (QB, $55,620,000). Those are cost prohibitive for Tampa Bay, so don’t expect Godwin to get the franchise tag in 2025 as it would clog the team’s salary cap with such a huge cap number on the books at the start of free agency.
Projections Should Be Treated As Ranges
Look elsewhere and you will see other values for what Chris Godwin will sign for. I have him at $19 million APY. Pro Football Focus has him at $20 million. Spotrac has him at $22.5 million.
I am obviously low man on the totem pole, but between my valuation and the high end of Spotrac you get a solid range. Various factors will determine where within that range the final number falls, including guarantees and cash flow.
Hopefully, this has given you a glimpse into how these valuations work and it will be interesting to see what Godwin ultimately can command in free agency if he gets there – or how much he re-signs for with Tampa Bay before free agency begins.
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