Jan. 20, 2025

About the Author: Joshua Queipo

Bucs wide receiver Chris Godwin represents the biggest pending internal free agent the team has in the 2025 offseason. There seems to be a great deal of mutual interest between him and Tampa Bay on the two sides reuniting for his third NFL contract.

But what that contract will look like is a fascinating proposition. I want to take you through my process in trying to determine what a fair deal between the two sides will look like.

Chris Godwin’s Current Three-Year Comps

In NFL contract negotiations both sides of the negotiating table look to find comparable players who have already signed contracts as a baseline for their offers. When I am projecting, I like to look at the most recent three-year sample size and try and find the most comparable players at the metrics that correlate best with contract history.

In the wide receiver market those metrics are catches, receiving yards, yards per route run and touchdown catches. Over the past three seasons Chris Godwin has 237 catches, 2,623 yards, 1.89 yards per route run and 10 touchdowns. The three closest receivers in terms of production in a contract year since 2020 are:

• Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photo by: USA Today

  Jarvis Landry (2022) – 207 catches, 2,584 yards, 1.99 yds/rr, 11 touchdowns

• Cole Beasley (2022) – 231 catches, 2,438 yards, 1.70 yds/rr, 11 touchdowns
• Jakobi Meyers (2023) – 209 catches, 2,398 yards, 1.87 yds/rr, eight touchdowns

Those three signed contracts that averaged 2.28% of the salary cap in the year they signed as an average per year salary. If we were to straight apply that to the likely $275 million salary cap in 2025 it would be an APY of just over $6.25 million. The formula’s that I use estimated a range of $11.7 – $13.0 million APY for Godwin.

Interestingly, all three of those receivers were primarily slot players and Godwin has enjoyed his best seasons playing in the slot. And 62% of Godwin’s snaps last year came in the slot, so he’s sitting at 55% for his career. Meyers is at 51% for his career, while Beasley was at 86% and Landry was at 67.2%, respectively, throughout their careers.

How Chris Godwin’s Projection Looked Headed Into 2024

But as we all know, much of Chris Godwin’s production was hampered by his season-ending ankle dislocation in Week 7. Looking at Godwin’s three-season production headed into 2024, and we get elevated numbers of 285 catches, 3,150 yards, 1.85 yds/rr and 10 touchdowns. His three closest comps for that time frame were:

• Michael Pittman Jr. (2024) – 296 catches, 3,159 yards, 1.79 yds/rr, 14 touchdowns
• Robert Woods (2020) – 232 catches, 3,134 yards, 2.01 yds/rr, 13 touchdowns
• D.J. Moore (2022) – 246 catches, 3,525 yards, 2.03 yds/rr, 12 touchdowns

The average of those three receivers’ APY’s as a percentage of cap in the year signed was just over 9%. Apply that to 2025’s estimated salary cap and you get an APY of about $25 million. My projection had him estimated for exactly that.

What Could Have Been…

Follow me down an alternate reality where Chris Godwin never got hurt against the Ravens and kept up his torrid pace for the entire season. He was projected to finish 2024 with 121 catches for 1,399 yards and 12 touchdowns while averaging 2.36 yards/route run. Those numbers would bring his three-year total to 308 catches, 3,446 yards, 1.98 yards/rr and 17 touchdowns. His three closest comps would then be:

• D.J. Moore (2024) – 252 catches, 3,409 yards, 1.98 yds/rr, 19 touchdowns
• Allen Robinson II (2021) – 255 catches, 3,151 yards, 1.87 yds/rr, 17 touchdowns
• Keenan Allen (2020) – 303 catches, 3,788 yards, 2.34 yds/rr, 18 touchdowns

The average APY of those contracts as a percent of cap is 9.9%. That translates to $27.25 million per year and our projection system had that projection at $30 million.

Finding The Right Value Given What Has Happened

Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photo by: USA Today

Unfortunately for Chris Godwin, the injury did occur and absolutely has an impact on his value in free agency in 2025. That $27.25 – $30 million range is off the table completely. The $23-25 million range is possible, but unlikely at this point, especially with Mike Evans making $23 million in 2024.

The projected number I have settled into for Godwin is $19 million per year. It represents the average of the 2024 projection of $25 million and 2025’s high-end projection of $13 million. That comes out to $19 million per year.

In terms of length, three years has been the sweet spot that receivers have been trying to get to in deals. Godwin himself went for a three-year deal at $20 million per seasonon his last contract in 2022. And with him entering his age-29 season in 2025, Godwin will want more than a one- or two-year deal.

And the Bucs won’t want to go to four or more years at this point in his career. So another three-year deal mixes security for Godwin well with flexibility for the team.

Other Notes

Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs could save some cap space if they are able to re-sign Chris Godwin before February 20. That is the date his current contract voids and his 2026 and 2027 void money accelerates into the 2025 cap. But this doesn’t make an extension a foregone conclusion – and certainly not by that date.

The Bucs have shown they will not let a deadline coerce them into a hastily negotiated deal. And the team has plenty of other maneuvers it can make to create cap space to where they don’t have to rely on a Godwin extension.

It should also be mentioned that there is an infinitesimal chance that they use the franchise tag on Godwin. While the general tag for wide receivers is around $25.7 million, the Bucs have already tagged Godwin twice before, first in 2021 and then again in 2022.

The NFL/NFLPA collective bargaining agreement requires that a player tagged three times be paid either 120% of the average of the Top 5 salaries at the position ($32,200,500), 144% of the player’s previous salary ($28,800,000) or the average of the Top 5 salaries for the highest paid position in the league (QB, $55,620,000). Those are cost prohibitive for Tampa Bay, so don’t expect Godwin to get the franchise tag in 2025 as it would clog the team’s salary cap with such a huge cap number on the books at the start of free agency.

Projections Should Be Treated As Ranges

Look elsewhere and you will see other values for what Chris Godwin will sign for. I have him at $19 million APY. Pro Football Focus has him at $20 million. Spotrac has him at $22.5 million.

I am obviously low man on the totem pole, but between my valuation and the high end of Spotrac you get a solid range. Various factors will determine where within that range the final number falls, including guarantees and cash flow.

Hopefully, this has given you a glimpse into how these valuations work and it will be interesting to see what Godwin ultimately can command in free agency if he gets there – or how much he re-signs for with Tampa Bay before free agency begins.

The Florida Panthers on multiple occasions this season have said they either win or they learn as they maneuver their way through a chance to defend the Stanley Cup.

Well, they have been doing a lot of learning lately.

Since a four-game win streak in mid-December, the Panthers have gone 3-5-1 during over their past nine games entering Tuesday’s game against the New Jersey Devils and have not won consecutive games in this stretch.

This includes falling 4-3 to the Philadelphia Flyers on Monday after leading 2-0 after one period and 2-1 going into the third.

Monday was the Panthers’ first loss this season when leading after two periods — they were 16-0 in those situations entering the Philadelphia loss — and the first time losing in regulation after being up through 40 minutes since the 2022-23 season.

“When you win the Cup,” Panthers coach Paul Maurice said postgame Monday, “you are on everybody’s calendar, it’s a big night.”

The biggest lesson the Panthers are learning in this stretch — and one Maurice has been hoping to apply all season: Figuring out how to play comfortable in tight games.

While the first two games of this rough patch were back-to-back shutout losses to the Tampa Bay Lightning and Montreal Canadiens, each of past seven has either been decided by one goal or was a one-goal game until the winning team scored on an empty net.

“It forces you to keep your brain in a different space,” Maurice said. “You’re not chasing the game by two or three, so you’re not thinking about that kind of hockey. And you’re not leading by two or three where you get maybe more defensive or more casual when you have a big lead. We need to get in as many of these tight games as we can. … That’s what you need to do in playoff hockey.”

It was a penchant of this team during Maurice’s first two seasons and a big reason why they were able to get to the Stanley Cup Final both years and ultimately win it all last season.

As the rest of the season continues on — the Panthers still have a four-game West Coast trip later this month, another six-game road trip in mid-March and eight more sets of back-to-backs overall during their final 38 regular-season games — Florida knows it needs to embrace the grind that will come on any given night before the postseason begins.

“Obviously it would be fun to win 10 to nothing, but that’s not how it goes,” center Anton Lundell said. “Every team is good, and especially going later into the season, everybody wants to win. Every point is becoming even bigger and bigger, so it’s going to be tighter and harder. We want to be ready for that when the playoffs start for sure, but at the same time we wanna win as many games as we can right now.”

Reinhart’s special-teams success

Sam Reinhart’s knack for scoring on special teams was on full display again Monday. The All-Star winger scored shorthanded in the first period to open scoring and had a goal on the power-play in the 3:35 into the third period to give Florida a brief 3-2 lead before Philadelphia scored the final two goals to take the lead and the win.

It was Reinhart’s second game of the season with a power-play goal and a short-handed goal and his third overall with the Panthers, which stands as the franchise record (Pavel Bure and Aleksander Barkov each have two).

Reinhart is up to 27 goals on the season, second behind only the Edmonton Oilers’ Leon Draisaitl (31). Of those 27, an NHL-leading five have come short-handed and another nine have come on the power play.

Reinhart also had five short-handed goals last season. According to NHL Stats, Reinhart is just the second player in the past 20 years to score five or more short-handed goals in consecutive seasons, joining former Flyers forward Mike Richards (2007-08 and 2008-09 seasons).

“He’s been flat-out great every night,” Maurice said.