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Another in-state test. Breaking down critical Florida football matchup with UCF at The Swamp


 

Florida football coach Billy Napier hasn’t wavered from the task at hand.

 

Rumors about Napier’s future with the Florida Gators (2-2, 1-1 SEC) persist, even after an open week following a 45-28 win at Mississippi State.

 

“Any time we spend on that would be a waste of time and a distraction.” Napier said. “We owe it to the players; I owe it to the staff to have my complete focus on improving the team.”

 

Florida gets another chance to change the narrative when it hosts in-state foe UCF on Saturday night at The Swamp (7:45 p.m., SEC Network). The goal, Napier says, is to build off the MSU win with a more complete effort on both sides of the ball.

 

“So far, I’ve seen good things from the players,” Napier said. “They’re excited to play, we’re excited to be back in front of our fans, obviously, night game here, it has a chance to be electric against an in-state opponent that’ll bring their fair share of people as well. We’re looking forward to competing with these guys.”

 

With an upset, UCF (3-1, 1-1 Big 12) under fourth-year coach Gus Malzahn, can prove it belongs in the conversation with the state’s traditional big three powers — Miami, Florida State and UF. Miami beat Florida 41-17 at The Swamp to open the season.

 

Here are five storylines to watch for the Florida-UCF game on Saturday:

 

Can the Florida football two-QB system continue to thrive?

Florida quarterbacks Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway combined for 26-of-28 passing for 277 yards, three TDs and no interceptions against Mississippi State. UCF’s pass defense has struggled (251.5 ypg, 13th in Big 12) in part because of poor pass rush (four sacks in four games).

 

Standout sophomore receiver Euguene Wilson III missed UF’s last two games with a knee surgery, yet Florida has stayed strong in the air thanks to receiving contributions from Arizona State transfer Elijhah Badger (14 catches, 305 yards, one TD) and Wisconsin transfer Chimere Dike (11 catches, 189 yards, one TD). UF also is getting the tight ends more involved, with Arlis Boardingham and Hayden Hansen catching TD passes against Mississippi State.

 

“Even Tony Livingston, his role’s increased a little bit,” Napier said. “We’ve got three really good players there. Certainly, Hayden and Arlis continue to get better. We want to distribute the ball. We want to have tight ends that are match-up issues.”

 

How much balance can Florida football achieve on offense?

Florida is coming off a balanced effort with 277 yards rushing and 226 yards rushing on 6.3 yards per carry. UF is hoping an off week can rejuvenate Montrell Johnson Jr., who has struggled in his last two games (22 carries, 61 yards, one lost fumble). Treyaun Webb (21 carries, 98 yards, one TD), Ja’Kobi Jackson (11 carries, 68 yards, two TDs) and freshman Jadan Baugh (10 carries, 98 yards) have all proven capable of gaining yards.

 

How will Florida football handle UCF’s offensive tempo

UCF averages 78.7 plays. Florida had some issues defending Mississippi State’s up-tempo offense, allowing 480 yards. Napier said the Gators worked on alignment and assignment issues and had players on defense miked up in practice to improve communication.

 

“I know how good we can be,” Florida defensive lineman Jack Pyburn said. “I’ve seen it day in and day out. We have elite players on defense, but we just have to play as one. I think that we are really now starting to take those right steps and the right direction to play as one and believe in one another.”

 

Can the Florida football defense keep UCF RB RJ Harvey and dual threat QB KJ Jefferson in check?

The 5-foot-9, 208-pound Harvey ranks second in the Big 12 rushing with 525 yards and eight TDs on 7.0 yards per carry. Jefferson, a 6-3 and 261 pounds, is a dual threat quarterback UF knows well. He led Arkansas to a 39-36 upset overtime win over the Gators last season, passing for 255 yards and two TDs while rushing for 92 yards and a TD.

 

Florida’s tackle rate of 60.5% ranks 14th among 16 SEC schools, so the Gators are going to need to do a better job wrapping up against Harvey and Jefferson.

 

“This team has a lot of skilled runners,” Florida linebacker Grayson Howard said. “It’s going to be hard to bring them down, but if the first guy in does his thing, the second guy in, the third guy in and we’ll bring them down.”

 

Can Florida football continue to make impact plays on special teams?

Against Mississippi State, Florida got a 35-yard punt return from Dike to set up a first-half touchdown. Trey Smack boomed a 47-yard field goal in the fourth quarter to help put the game away. Florida could use another big play in the return game or more consistency in the kicking game.

 

Prediction

Florida 41, UCF 38: Between Florida’s suspect run defense and UCF’s suspect pass defense, stops will be hard to come by. Mertz will lead the Gators on a scoring drive on their last possession, setting up Smack for a game-winning field goal.

 

 

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