Derrick Henry keeps focus on preparation after Ravens win (1:16)
Each week of the NFL campaign is like its own mini season. The league is doing its best to spread its wings from the traditional Thursday/Sunday/Monday schedule, but with the vast majority of games taking place in a Sunday afternoon firehose of football each week, the stories coming out of each weekend’s games seem more meaningful than they do in pro baseball, basketball or hockey, where the next matchup and its takeaways are usually only a day or two away.
But do all of those stories or takeaways hold up over the course of the entire season?
Let’s examine that very idea. I’m going to run through each week of the NFL season — from Week 1 through Week 17 — and identify three stories that were being told after that slate of games. One will be something that seemed meaningful at the time and turned out to be just that. The second will be a story that flew under the radar before revealing itself to be meaningful by the time we got to the end of December. And the third will be a story that seemed significant when it happened, only to end up being a fluke or something more irrelevant to the broader, seasonlong stories of 2025.
I’ll go in chronological order, so we’ll start with what happened in Week 1 and work all the way to the games we saw over the past few days as part of Week 17. What mattered? What didn’t? And what seems like a bigger deal now than it did in the moment?
Week 1
Mattered then, matters now: Lions get overwhelmed by the Packers. It took a garbage-time touchdown to make the final score look respectable, but a 27-13 shellacking by the Packers seemed to hint that the 2025 version of the Lions might not be quite as dominant as the team that went 15-2 in 2024. The Lions couldn’t run the ball, turning their 22 carries into just 46 yards, and the Packers were able to attack the interior of Detroit’s offensive line for negative plays and pressures of quarterback Jared Goff, who struggled badly under duress.
Those have been consistent problems in the Lions’ losses this season. Every team is going to post gaudier rushing stats in its victories by virtue of running out the clock with a lead, but the Lions were 13th in success rate on the ground in their wins. They were dead last (32.2%) in their losses, even compared to how effective everyone else’s run game was during their respective defeats. Injuries and inconsistent play helped opposing defenses attack the likes of Tate Ratledge and Trystan Colon up front. And Goff’s 12.0 QBR when pressured is 25th in the NFL.
At 8-8, the Lions took a major step back for the first time under coach Dan Campbell and general manager Brad Holmes.
Didn’t seem to matter then, matters now: Raiders 20, Patriots 13. This was probably the least representative game of the season in terms of the result and what it suggested about the future — but it made an impact. Geno Smith threw for 362 yards in his first start with the Raiders, Brock Bowers ran off an easy 103-yard game before leaving with a tweaked knee, and a Pete Carroll-led defense held Drake Maye and the Patriots to 13 points. This seemed like a game between teams hoping to surprise with a potential wild-card berth in the AFC, and the Raiders had struck the first blow.
Of course, these teams have gone in drastically different directions since. Bowers spent two months trying to get right, and the offense never recovered. Smith and Carroll are likely to be one-and-done in Las Vegas. The Patriots quickly turned things around, and with the help of one of the easiest schedules in modern NFL history, they’ve gone 13-3 and won the AFC East with a week to spare.
Why this game matters, of course, is something nobody could have expected back in September. If the Patriots win this game against one of the worst teams in the league, they’d be 14-2 and the 1-seed in the AFC right now, in position for a first-round bye. As it stands, they’ll be the second seed in the conference behind the Broncos, who have the same 13-3 mark as the Pats. The difference between the two is their record in common games. The Broncos are 6-0 in games against opponents who went up against the Patriots this season. The Pats are 5-1 in those games, and that lone loss, of course, is to the Raiders.
Mattered then, didn’t matter in the long run: J.J. McCarthy, NFC Player of the Week. Even at the time, Vikings quarterback McCarthy winning Player of the Week for his performance during a topsy-turvy NFL debut was controversial. McCarthy had thrown a pick-six to Bears cornerback Nahshon Wright and done nothing on offense for the vast majority of the contest, but he was lights out in the fourth quarter, going 6-of-8 for 87 yards with two touchdown passes, plus a 14-yard rushing score.
Vikings fans thought they had landed the latest in a series of successful quarterbacks off the Kevin O’Connell assembly line, but that victory was McCarthy’s peak in 2025. He has looked unplayably bad for stretches, and while there have been some positive games against truly awful NFC East defenses, McCarthy’s 36.2 Total QBR would rank 29th in the league if the 2024 first-round pick had thrown enough passes to qualify. McCarthy has also missed time because of a high ankle sprain, a concussion and most recently a hairline fracture in his hand. If he doesn’t make it back for Week 18, McCarthy will have missed 25 of his first 34 possible starts as a pro.
This game also seemed like just another close win for the Vikings, who had run a gaudy record in one-score games under O’Connell in 2022 (9-0) and 2024 (8-1). They’re a more realistic 4-3 in those same games this season. Minnesota fell all the way to 4-8 before going on a four-game winning streak over the past month, buoyed by three games against NFC East competition and a six-takeaway win over the Lions on Thursday night.
A deliriously excited Bears fan base left Soldier Field dejected that night in Week 1. Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson’s new offense looked great on the opening drive, but the Bears couldn’t move the ball as the game wore on. And while a late score got them within three points, Chicago couldn’t pull out a miracle. Things have improved, and often it has been through late-game performances from Williams and Johnson’s offensive scheme. The Bears are 7-2 in one-score games since the loss in the opener.
Week 2
Mattered then, matters now: Chiefs lose their second straight close game. After posting the best record in one-score games (10-0) in NFL history in 2024, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs had earned the right to win games their own way. Even looking past the prior season, the Chiefs and their legendary quarterback seemed inevitable. It took something truly spectacular, such as the Eagles’ pass rush in the prior season’s Super Bowl, to overcome a Chiefs team that seemed like it would always pull out the close ones.
Instead, after losing to the Chargers the prior week in Brazil, the Chiefs weren’t able to pull out another one-score game against the Eagles at home. This one wasn’t as close as it seemed, as it took a Tyquan Thornton score with three minutes to go to bring the Chiefs within three points, at which point Jalen Hurts and the Philly offense ran out the clock with a tush push to end the proceedings.
The Chiefs went on a two-game winning streak after starting 0-2, but the issues they dealt with early in the season lingered. Mahomes turned the ball over too often in key spots. The running game couldn’t produce any explosive plays. The pass rush didn’t get home often enough, and the secondary couldn’t hold up when the blitz failed. And a year after the Chiefs always seemed to find a way to pull out a victory when the game was tight, their opponents seemed to beat them to the punch. Coach Andy Reid’s team is 1-8 in games decided by seven points or fewer after a narrow loss to the Broncos on Christmas Day.
Didn’t seem to matter then, matters now: Jayden Daniels suffers a minor knee injury late in a loss to the Packers. Coming off a scintillating rookie season, Daniels and his Commanders were seen as potential Super Bowl contenders after their run to the NFC title game in 2024. Daniels made it through his debut year unscathed, but late in a disappointing loss to the Packers, he suffered what was characterized at the time as a day-to-day knee injury.
It was unclear whether Daniels would miss time, but he sat out the next two games before returning in a win over the Chargers. Injuries ended up ruining his season, as Daniels then missed a game because of a hamstring injury before returning and promptly dislocating his left elbow late in a blowout loss to the Seahawks. Daniels returned again in Week 14, but after suffering another elbow injury in a 31-0 loss to the Vikings, the Commanders shut down their franchise quarterback for the season. Owing to the quarterback concerns and a truly horrific defense, the Commanders have gone from 12-5 to 4-12.
Mattered then, didn’t matter in the long run: Colts score 29 in a comeback win over the Broncos. Daniel Jones and this Indy offense rolled the Dolphins in Week 1, but when they racked up 473 yards and 29 points in a dramatic victory over a great Broncos defense in Week 2, the Colts were no longer flying under the radar. Jonathan Taylor was dominant, posting 215 yards from scrimmage, and Jones threw for 316 yards and a touchdown. It took a leverage call on Broncos linebacker Dondrea Tillman to wipe a 60-yard missed field goal off the board and give Spencer Shrader a second chance at a game winner, but his 45-yard kick pushed the Colts to 2-0.
Indy’s offense stunned the league for half a season, and through the Week 8 win over the Titans, a 7-1 Colts team averaged a whopping 3.5 points per drive, trailing only the 2007 Patriots for the best mark by any offense in the NFL through the first eight games of a season since 2000. The Colts have been a league-average offense since that week, as the offensive line has battled injuries and a remarkable turnover rate has regressed toward the mean. Jones was already beginning to show signs of cratering before tearing an Achilles in December, which stunningly opened the door for Philip Rivers to take over as quarterback.
The Colts have lost six straight, and unless they upset the Texans in Houston next week, Indy will fail to turn its 7-1 start into a winning record, let alone a playoff berth.
Mattered then, matters now: Rams special teams costs them a win over the Eagles. During a stretch when it seemed like NFL defenses had cracked the code to block field goals on a weekly basis, the Eagles essentially swung a critical NFC game by blocking a pair of Joshua Karty field goals in the fourth quarter, including a 44-yard attempt that would have given the Rams a 29-27 win on the final snap of the game, only for Jordan Davis to return it for a 44-yard touchdown.
The Rams might have the potential to be the league’s most dominant offense and defense, but special teams have ailed coach Sean McVay’s team in its losses. Two weeks after this defeat, Karty had an extra point blocked and missed a field goal in a 26-23 loss to the 49ers. The Seahawks fueled their fourth-quarter comeback win earlier this month with a Rashid Shaheed punt return touchdown and a short field, courtesy of a 32-yard punt by Ethan Evans. Harrison Mevis, who took over for the deposed Karty at midseason, missed a 48-yard kick that would have given the Rams their lead back with 2:11 to go in a game Los Angeles eventually lost in overtime.
McVay responded to that defeat by firing special teams coordinator Chase Blackburn, marking the first time he has resorted to firing one of his coordinators during a season. The Rams have swapped out their kicker and now their coordinator, but it remains to be seen whether their special teams woes will linger into January. Subpar special teams in key moments are the biggest reason the Rams will likely be spending their postseason on the road.
Didn’t seem to matter then, matters now: Panthers dominate the Falcons in a 30-0 victory. After turning the ball over five times during an 0-2 start, Bryce Young and the Panthers seemed to have lost whatever optimism they had earned during a solid end to the 2024 campaign. With the Bucs starting 2-0 and about to face the Jets, it seemed like the Panthers could fall out of the NFC South race before the calendar even turned to October.
Instead, while the Bucs beat the Jets and got to 3-0, the Panthers turned their season around with a blowout victory over the Falcons. Chau Smith-Wade chipped in with a pick-six, and while Young wasn’t spectacular, he went 16-of-24 for 121 yards, taking just one sack and protecting the football. The Panthers didn’t turn the ball over, and their defense was good enough to shut down Bijan Robinson throughout the game.
When Carolina has protected the football, good things have followed. The Panthers are 7-2 when they avoid multi-giveaway games. They’re 1-6 when turning the ball over two times or more, a record they added to in Sunday’s loss to the Seahawks, when two short fields from a Chuba Hubbard fumble and a Young interception set a profligate Seattle offense up for a pair of touchdowns.
Luke Kuechly: Panthers have been very particular in how they’ve built the team
Luke Kuechly joins “The Pat McAfee Show” and breaks down the Carolina Panthers’ improved roster this season.
Mattered then, didn’t matter in the long run: Texans start 0-3 with a 17-10 loss to the Jaguars. Every year after Week 2, I write a column about how Week 3 is essentially a playoff game for teams that have started 0-2. While it’s a little easier in the 14-playoff team era, the only team since 2002 that had made it to the postseason after starting 0-3 was the 2018 Texans, who went 11-2 from that point forward to win the AFC South.
The 2025 Texans have joined the club, following their 0-3 start by going 11-2 over the ensuing 13 games. They’ll get a chance to make it to 12-2 with a win over Philip Rivers and the Colts next week. Since that 0-3 start, they’ve fielded the league’s best defense by points allowed per drive (1.4) and EPA per play (minus-0.10).
And while the offense hasn’t always been great, it has needed to be impressive for only short stretches to pull out victories. The C.J. Stroud-led offense didn’t have a single drive over 35 yards after the first quarter in Week 17, but two long touchdown passes early in the game and two missed kicks by Los Angeles kicker Cameron Dicker were enough to swing a 20-16 victory over the Chargers.
It’s fair to suggest that the Texans were unlucky to start 0-3; the three losses were by a combined 13 points, and if the Bucs win next week, all three will have come against eventual playoff teams. Most teams that start 0-3 don’t have the juice to turn things around. Even without Stroud for a month in the middle of the season, the Texans had enough on defense to flip their season. They’re going to be a very difficult out come January.
Week 4
Mattered then, matters now: Joe Alt goes down injured for the Chargers. While the Chargers entered the season without star left tackle Rashawn Slater after the Pro Bowler tore a patellar tendon during training camp, no team was better protected against an injury to a left tackle. Alt played left tackle during his time at Notre Dame, and after a banner rookie season on the right side, the Chargers had a few weeks of practice time to reacclimate the first-round pick as he moved to protect Justin Herbert’s blindside.
And then, after a 3-0 start, Alt followed Slater to the sideline. The 22-year-old suffered a high ankle sprain in the Week 4 loss to the Giants, and while he returned later in the season, Alt lasted only one and a half more games before another ankle injury ended his sophomore season. The Chargers might have believed they had the best tackle duo in football, but those guys combined to play just 313 offensive snaps in 2025. (Alt still managed to earn a Pro Bowl nod last week, which raises serious questions about whether anyone actually pays attention to offensive linemen.)
The entire offense shifted. A surprisingly pass-happy attack turtled up and leaned back into the run, even without running backs Najee Harris and Omarion Hampton for most of the season. Herbert’s Total QBR fell from 77.0 with Alt on the field to 54.1 without him, which would be the difference between second and 20th in Total QBR over a full season. And Herbert has been smacked around behind Jamaree Salyer, Bobby Hart and Trevor Penning, as he has been hit 206 times, way ahead of any other quarterback in the league. Herbert and the Chargers were still good enough to earn a postseason berth, but their ceiling is capped with replacement-level play at both tackle spots.
Didn’t seem to matter then, matters now: Bears pull out a dramatic victory over the Raiders. After getting their season back on track with a 31-14 victory over the Cowboys, the Bears spent most of Week 4 trailing the Raiders. It took a D’Andre Swift rushing touchdown with 1:34 to go to put the Bears up 25-24, and after a failed two-point try, the Bears had to keep the Raiders out of field goal range to hold on to their lead.
They didn’t, but it didn’t matter. The Raiders quickly got into deep field goal range, at which point Las Vegas coach Pete Carroll decided to chew up the remaining clock and attempt a 54-yard field goal. For the second week in a row, though, a game was decided by a blocked kick at the buzzer, as Josh Blackwell blocked Daniel Carlson’s attempt to give the Bears a one-point victory.
Does one close victory spur a few others? Maybe, maybe not, but this became the first in a series of dramatic Bears wins late in games. This same team came back from its bye and took advantage of a fumbled Commanders exchange to get the ball back for a winning score. The Bears beat the Bengals on a touchdown with 17 seconds left, put together late comeback wins over the Giants and Vikings, and shocked the Packers with an onside kick and winning touchdown in overtime in Week 16. The win over the Raiders was the first sign that fate seemed to be on Chicago’s side in meaningful moments this season.
Mattered then, didn’t matter in the long run: Chiefs drop 37 on the Ravens. The offense is back on track! There were real concerns about what Mahomes would do on offense early in the season with receivers Rashee Rice suspended and Xavier Worthy banged up, and after iffy performances against the Chargers and Eagles and an underwhelming win over the Giants, this performance against the Ravens was the first sign the Chiefs might actually be explosive on offense. Mahomes threw for 270 yards and four touchdowns, and with Rice’s return only a couple of games away, there was a world in which the Chiefs were about to become very fun on offense for the first time since 2022.
While there were moments, that dream never really became a reality. The Chiefs were eighth in EPA per play between Week 5 and Mahomes’ season-ending torn ACL against the Chargers. That’s not bad at all, of course, but it’s not the sort of ceiling we know a Chiefs offense can have with Mahomes in the lineup. Worthy has never really seemed right, the run game never got going, the offensive line cycled through injuries at both tackle spots, and Rice didn’t put together a single 100-yard game in regulation before going on injured reserve earlier this month.
Meanwhile, what looked to be a porous Ravens defense eventually righted the ship. It allowed 44 points to the Texans the following week and was lucky to get away with allowing 17 to the Rams in Week 6, but after its subsequent bye, the defense found a groove. The Ravens are sixth in defensive EPA per play since that Week 7 bye, with Kyle
Be the first to comment