After five games, the Kentucky Wildcats looked like an intriguing upset pick to create chaos in the SEC. They were on the wrong side of a one-point game against the Georgia Bulldogs and pulled off an upset of the Ole Miss Rebels, ready to continue to play spoiler through the conference.
Now, as they travel to Austin to take on the No. 3 Texas Longhorns, they are riding a four-game SEC losing streak, being outscored 120-61 during that slide. The Longhorns, coming off of a tight and physical matchup against the Arkansas Razorbacks, are in control of their future for the SEC and the College Football Playoff. Kentucky would love to play their brand of ball-control, turnover-focused football to lump Texas in with Ole Miss as teams with derailed playoff hopes at their hands.
Ball control
One of the key ways that Kentucky likes to play football is controlling the ball and keeping more talented opponents off of the field. The Wildcats rank No. 2 in the country in opponent plays per game through the year, a key to their early success. In the near-upset of Georgia, the Bulldogs ran just 54 plays, while Ole Miss managed 56 as the Wildcats knocked them off on the road.
That number ballooned during their downturn over the last three SEC contests, including 76 and 82 plays against Auburn and Tennessee, respectively. The 82 plays by the Vols are the most an opponent ran on Kentucky since the 2020 season when Missouri ran 92 and won the game 20-10.
A big part of Kentucky’s ability to control the ball is their ability, or inability to, win the turnover battle. Through 10 games this year, the Wildcats have turned the ball over 16 times, including 12 interceptions thrown, eight coming in their last three SEC games. Through SEC play they have had just one game in which they didn’t turn the ball over — their lone SEC win against Ole Miss. Quarterback Brock Vandagriff has thrown at least one interception in the last four games, including a pair of them against Florida, both of which were drops by receivers. Defensively, Texas has been opportunistic when opponents throw interception-worthy passes, sitting tied for No. 7 in the country and leading the SEC with 15 interceptions through 10 games.
The Longhorns’ turnover margin is floated by that number, giving the ball away 15 times this year, ranking No. 90 in fumbles lost and No. 63 in interceptions thrown. The Wildcats, who have forced 13 turnovers this year and still boast a minus-three turnover margin, have intercepted the ball 10 times and forced just three via fumble.
Texas rushing offense
One of the biggest frustrations with the Longhorns’s offense has been their inability to run the ball offensively, illustrated by their last two games. In the big win over Florida, the Longhorns rushed for 210 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 6.77, while they rushed for 139 yards on a 3.39 yards per carry pace. Kentucky has been adept at playing in the opponents’ backfield, despite their inability to turn it into wins, averaging seven tackles for loss in SEC games.
In wins, Kentucky has allowed an average of 75 rushing yards to opponents, including a 92-yard performance in the upset win over Ole Miss. In their losses, they are giving up 172.33 yards, a number that jumped to 213.25 yards in their last three SEC games.
Leave a Reply